MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1769
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1207 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND NRN NY...VT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 161707Z - 161900Z
   
   STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN ONTARIO AND WRN
   NY...WITH INCREASING THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
   THE MAIN THREAT...BUT SOME HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY
   OCCUR AS WELL.
   
   VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL CU FIELD DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A
   COLD FRONT...FROM SWRN QUEBEC INTO SERN ONTARIO AND WRN NY NEAR LAKE
   BREEZE. PLUME OF LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS IS CURRENTLY ADVECTING
   NEWD AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPMENT WHERE STRONG HEATING IS ALSO TAKING
   PLACE.
   
   CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION/HEATING ALONG WITH DEVELOPING COLD FRONT
   WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. STRONG FLOW ALOFT
   IS RESULTING IN LONG HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH
   INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR MAY RESULT IN AN
   ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
   WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED HAIL IS LIKELY AS
   WELL...MAINLY NRN AREAS WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT. TORNADO THREAT IS NOT
   HIGH...BUT A RELATIVE THREAT WILL EXIST OVER NRN AREAS AS WELL WHERE
   STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IS STRONGEST WITH BACKED SFC WINDS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 08/16/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
   42237630 42347730 42877823 43237817 43587774 44177631
   44797546 45027482 45017238 44037260 42967285 42487424