Storm Prediction Center Severe Thunderstorm Watch 172

Hazard	Tornadoes	EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood	Low	Very Low

Severe Wind	65 kt+ Wind
Moderate	Low

Severe Hail	2"+ Hail
Moderate	Moderate

Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

   SEL2

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 172
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   350 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Northeast New Mexico
     Oklahoma Panhandle
     West/Northwest Texas

   * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until
     1100 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Slow eastward-moving storms are expected to gradually
   intensify through late afternoon/early from eastern New Mexico into
   west/northwest Texas including the Panhandle. Isolated large hail
   will be possible with a tendency for clustering by evening leading
   to an increasing potential for severe-caliber wind gusts.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
   statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northeast
   of Clayton NM to 50 miles south southwest of Lubbock TX. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   28020.

   ...Guyer

Hazard	Tornadoes	EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood	Low	Very Low

Severe Wind	65 kt+ Wind
Moderate	Low

Severe Hail	2"+ Hail
Moderate	Moderate

   SEL2

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 172
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   350 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Northeast New Mexico
     Oklahoma Panhandle
     West/Northwest Texas

   * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until
     1100 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Slow eastward-moving storms are expected to gradually
   intensify through late afternoon/early from eastern New Mexico into
   west/northwest Texas including the Panhandle. Isolated large hail
   will be possible with a tendency for clustering by evening leading
   to an increasing potential for severe-caliber wind gusts.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
   statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northeast
   of Clayton NM to 50 miles south southwest of Lubbock TX. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   28020.

   ...Guyer

Hazard	Tornadoes	EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood	Low	Very Low

Severe Wind	65 kt+ Wind
Moderate	Low

Severe Hail	2"+ Hail
Moderate	Moderate

Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

   WOUS64 KWNS 152047
   WOU2

   BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 172
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   350 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2021

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 172 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
   FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

   NMC009-021-037-041-059-160400-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0172.210515T2050Z-210516T0400Z/

   NM 
   .    NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   CURRY                HARDING             QUAY                
   ROOSEVELT            UNION               


   OKC025-139-160400-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0172.210515T2050Z-210516T0400Z/

   OK 
   .    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   CIMARRON             TEXAS               


   TXC011-017-045-065-069-079-107-111-117-153-169-189-195-205-219-
   233-279-303-305-341-359-369-375-381-421-437-445-501-160400-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0172.210515T2050Z-210516T0400Z/

   TX 
   .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   ARMSTRONG            BAILEY              BRISCOE             
   CARSON               CASTRO              COCHRAN             
   CROSBY               DALLAM              DEAF SMITH          
   FLOYD                GARZA               HALE                
   HANSFORD             HARTLEY             HOCKLEY             
   HUTCHINSON           LAMB                LUBBOCK             
   LYNN                 MOORE               OLDHAM              
   PARMER               POTTER              RANDALL             
   SHERMAN              SWISHER             TERRY               
   YOAKUM               


   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...LUB...AMA...

Hazard	Tornadoes	EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood	Low	Very Low

Severe Wind	65 kt+ Wind
Moderate	Low

Severe Hail	2"+ Hail
Moderate	Moderate

Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

   SAW2 
   WW 172 SEVERE TSTM NM OK TX 152050Z - 160400Z
   AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
   40NNE CAO/CLAYTON NM/ - 50SSW LBB/LUBBOCK TX/
   ..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /39ESE TBE - 44SSW LBB/
   HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
   MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28020.

   LAT...LON 36980151 32990086 32990344 36980423

   THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
   FOR WOU2.

Watch 172 Status Report Messages:

STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 172

VALID 160100Z - 160240Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE HOB
TO 40 NE CVS TO 15 ESE CAO TO 20 S SPD.

..DIAL..05/16/21

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 172 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

OKC025-139-160240-

OK 
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CIMARRON	     TEXAS		 
$$


TXC011-017-045-065-069-079-107-111-117-153-169-189-195-205-219-
233-279-303-305-341-359-369-375-381-421-437-445-501-160240-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARMSTRONG	     BAILEY		 BRISCOE	     
CARSON		     CASTRO		 COCHRAN	     
CROSBY		     DALLAM		 DEAF SMITH	     
FLOYD		     GARZA		 HALE		     
HANSFORD	     HARTLEY		 HOCKLEY	     
HUTCHINSON	     LAMB		 LUBBOCK	     
LYNN		     MOORE		 OLDHAM 	     
PARMER		     POTTER		 RANDALL	     
SHERMAN 	     SWISHER		 TERRY		     
YOAKUM		     
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 172

VALID 152325Z - 160040Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 624

..DIAL..05/15/21

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 172 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NMC009-021-037-041-059-160040-

NM 
.    NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CURRY		     HARDING		 QUAY		     
ROOSEVELT	     UNION		 
$$


OKC025-139-160040-

OK 
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CIMARRON	     TEXAS		 
$$


TXC011-017-045-065-069-079-107-111-117-153-169-189-195-205-219-
233-279-303-305-341-359-369-375-381-421-437-445-501-160040-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARMSTRONG	     BAILEY		 BRISCOE	     
CARSON		     CASTRO		 COCHRAN	     
CROSBY		     DALLAM		 DEAF SMITH	     
FLOYD		     GARZA		 HALE		     
HANSFORD	     HARTLEY		 HOCKLEY	     
HUTCHINSON	     LAMB		 LUBBOCK	     
LYNN		     MOORE		 OLDHAM 	     
PARMER		     POTTER		 RANDALL	     
SHERMAN 	     SWISHER		 TERRY		     
YOAKUM		     
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 172

VALID 152210Z - 152340Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..DIAL..05/15/21

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 172 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NMC009-021-037-041-059-152340-

NM 
.    NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CURRY		     HARDING		 QUAY		     
ROOSEVELT	     UNION		 
$$


OKC025-139-152340-

OK 
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CIMARRON	     TEXAS		 
$$


TXC011-017-045-065-069-079-107-111-117-153-169-189-195-205-219-
233-279-303-305-341-359-369-375-381-421-437-445-501-152340-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARMSTRONG	     BAILEY		 BRISCOE	     
CARSON		     CASTRO		 COCHRAN	     
CROSBY		     DALLAM		 DEAF SMITH	     
FLOYD		     GARZA		 HALE		     
HANSFORD	     HARTLEY		 HOCKLEY	     
HUTCHINSON	     LAMB		 LUBBOCK	     
LYNN		     MOORE		 OLDHAM 	     
PARMER		     POTTER		 RANDALL	     
SHERMAN 	     SWISHER		 TERRY		     
YOAKUM		     
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

Hazard	Tornadoes	EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood	Low	Very Low

Severe Wind	65 kt+ Wind
Moderate	Low

Severe Hail	2"+ Hail
Moderate	Moderate

Note: Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	Low (10%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes	Low (<2%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Low (20%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Mod (30%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (80%)

For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.