Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 102
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
630 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ARKANSAS
EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI
EASTERN OKLAHOMA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 630 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH OF KNOB NOSTER
MISSOURI TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF FLIPPIN ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 95...WW 96...WW 97...WW
98...WW 99...WW 100...WW 101...
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER
WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MO DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WHILE OTHER STORMS DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE AR/OK BORDER.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL
MAINTAIN A RISK OF TORNADOES /INCLUDING ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES/
THROUGH THE EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 102 TORNADO AR KS MO OK 272330Z - 280700Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50N SZL/KNOB NOSTER MO/ - 55SSW FLP/FLIPPIN AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /56E MCI - 57NW LIT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.
LAT...LON 39439186 35459123 35459444 39439523
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 102 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 102
VALID 280650Z - 280700Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BVX TO
35 NW ARG.
PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 102 MAY BE REDEFINED INTO
WW 104. OTHERWISE...WW 102 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 28/07Z.
..KERR..04/28/14
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...EAX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 102
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-023-049-063-065-067-135-137-141-280700-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER CLEBURNE FULTON
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
SHARP STONE VAN BUREN
$$
MOC015-029-059-065-067-085-091-105-125-131-141-149-153-161-169-
203-215-225-229-280700-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CAMDEN DALLAS
DENT DOUGLAS HICKORY
HOWELL LACLEDE MARIES
MILLER MORGAN OREGON
OZARK PHELPS PULASKI
SHANNON TEXAS WEBSTER
WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 102
VALID 280535Z - 280640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N RUE TO
45 N SGF TO 45 N COU.
..KERR..04/28/14
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...EAX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 102
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-023-049-063-065-067-089-101-129-135-137-141-280640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CLEBURNE
FULTON INDEPENDENCE IZARD
JACKSON MARION NEWTON
SEARCY SHARP STONE
VAN BUREN
$$
MOC015-029-043-059-065-067-077-085-091-105-125-131-141-149-153-
161-167-169-203-209-213-215-225-229-280640-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CAMDEN CHRISTIAN
DALLAS DENT DOUGLAS
GREENE HICKORY HOWELL
LACLEDE MARIES MILLER
MORGAN OREGON OZARK
PHELPS POLK PULASKI
SHANNON STONE TANEY
TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 102
VALID 280440Z - 280540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW RUE
TO 45 N SGF TO 45 SSE IRK.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 442
..COHEN..04/28/14
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...EAX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 102
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-023-049-063-065-067-089-101-129-135-137-141-280540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CLEBURNE
FULTON INDEPENDENCE IZARD
JACKSON MARION NEWTON
SEARCY SHARP STONE
VAN BUREN
$$
MOC015-029-043-059-065-067-077-085-091-105-125-131-141-149-153-
161-167-169-203-209-213-215-225-229-280540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CAMDEN CHRISTIAN
DALLAS DENT DOUGLAS
GREENE HICKORY HOWELL
LACLEDE MARIES MILLER
MORGAN OREGON OZARK
PHELPS POLK PULASKI
SHANNON STONE TANEY
TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 102
VALID 280330Z - 280440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW JLN
TO 45 SSE IRK.
..COHEN..04/28/14
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...EAX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 102
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-007-009-015-023-033-049-063-065-067-087-089-101-129-135-
137-141-143-280440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CLEBURNE CRAWFORD
FULTON INDEPENDENCE IZARD
JACKSON MADISON MARION
NEWTON SEARCY SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON
$$
MOC009-011-015-029-039-043-057-059-065-067-077-085-091-097-105-
109-119-125-131-141-145-149-153-161-167-169-185-203-209-213-215-
217-225-229-280440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BENTON
CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN
DADE DALLAS DENT
DOUGLAS GREENE HICKORY
HOWELL JASPER LACLEDE
LAWRENCE MCDONALD MARIES
MILLER MORGAN NEWTON
OREGON OZARK PHELPS
POLK PULASKI ST. CLAIR
SHANNON STONE TANEY
TEXAS VERNON WEBSTER
WRIGHT
$$
OKC001-021-023-041-061-077-127-135-280440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CHOCTAW
DELAWARE HASKELL LATIMER
PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 102
VALID 280230Z - 280340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 0438 AND 0439.
..COHEN..04/28/14
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...EAX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 102
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-007-009-015-023-033-049-063-065-067-087-089-101-129-135-
137-141-143-280340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CLEBURNE CRAWFORD
FULTON INDEPENDENCE IZARD
JACKSON MADISON MARION
NEWTON SEARCY SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON
$$
KSC091-103-121-209-280340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH MIAMI
WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC009-011-013-015-021-025-029-033-037-039-043-047-049-057-059-
065-067-077-083-085-091-095-097-101-105-107-109-119-125-131-141-
145-149-153-159-161-165-167-169-177-185-195-203-209-213-215-217-
225-229-280340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BATES
BENTON BUCHANAN CALDWELL
CAMDEN CARROLL CASS
CEDAR CHRISTIAN CLAY
CLINTON DADE DALLAS
DENT DOUGLAS GREENE
HENRY HICKORY HOWELL
JACKSON JASPER JOHNSON
LACLEDE LAFAYETTE LAWRENCE
MCDONALD MARIES MILLER
MORGAN NEWTON OREGON
OZARK PETTIS PHELPS
PLATTE POLK PULASKI
RAY ST. CLAIR SALINE
SHANNON STONE TANEY
TEXAS VERNON WEBSTER
WRIGHT
$$
OKC001-021-023-041-061-077-127-135-280340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CHOCTAW
DELAWARE HASKELL LATIMER
PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 102
VALID 280145Z - 280240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NE GMJ TO
35 SSE OJC TO 35 SSW OJC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 438.
..MARSH..04/28/14
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...EAX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 102
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-007-009-015-023-033-049-063-065-067-087-089-101-129-135-
137-141-143-280240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CLEBURNE CRAWFORD
FULTON INDEPENDENCE IZARD
JACKSON MADISON MARION
NEWTON SEARCY SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON
$$
KSC091-103-121-209-280240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH MIAMI
WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC009-011-013-015-021-025-029-033-037-039-043-047-049-057-059-
065-067-077-083-085-091-095-097-101-105-107-109-119-125-131-141-
145-149-153-159-161-165-167-169-177-185-195-203-209-213-215-217-
225-229-280240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BATES
BENTON BUCHANAN CALDWELL
CAMDEN CARROLL CASS
CEDAR CHRISTIAN CLAY
CLINTON DADE DALLAS
DENT DOUGLAS GREENE
HENRY HICKORY HOWELL
JACKSON JASPER JOHNSON
LACLEDE LAFAYETTE LAWRENCE
MCDONALD MARIES MILLER
MORGAN NEWTON OREGON
OZARK PETTIS PHELPS
PLATTE POLK PULASKI
RAY ST. CLAIR SALINE
SHANNON STONE TANEY
TEXAS VERNON WEBSTER
WRIGHT
$$
OKC001-021-023-041-061-077-127-135-280240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CHOCTAW
DELAWARE HASKELL LATIMER
PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 102
VALID 280045Z - 280140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NE GMJ TO
35 S OJC TO 40 SSW OJC.
..MARSH..04/28/14
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...EAX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 102
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-007-009-015-023-033-049-063-065-067-087-089-101-129-135-
137-141-143-280140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CLEBURNE CRAWFORD
FULTON INDEPENDENCE IZARD
JACKSON MADISON MARION
NEWTON SEARCY SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON
$$
KSC091-103-121-209-280140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH MIAMI
WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC009-011-013-015-021-025-029-033-037-039-043-047-049-057-059-
065-067-077-083-085-091-095-097-101-105-107-109-119-125-131-141-
145-149-153-159-161-165-167-169-177-185-195-203-209-213-215-217-
225-229-280140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BATES
BENTON BUCHANAN CALDWELL
CAMDEN CARROLL CASS
CEDAR CHRISTIAN CLAY
CLINTON DADE DALLAS
DENT DOUGLAS GREENE
HENRY HICKORY HOWELL
JACKSON JASPER JOHNSON
LACLEDE LAFAYETTE LAWRENCE
MCDONALD MARIES MILLER
MORGAN NEWTON OREGON
OZARK PETTIS PHELPS
PLATTE POLK PULASKI
RAY ST. CLAIR SALINE
SHANNON STONE TANEY
TEXAS VERNON WEBSTER
WRIGHT
$$
OKC001-021-023-041-061-077-127-135-280140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CHOCTAW
DELAWARE HASKELL LATIMER
PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
High (80%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (60%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.