Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 86
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IDAHO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA
WESTERN WYOMING
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL
1000 PM MDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MALAD CITY IDAHO TO 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF HARLOWTON MONTANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/STRENGTH THROUGH
EARLY TNGT ALONG AND AHEAD OF INTENSIFYING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
NRN GRT BASIN/NRN RCKYS...WITH DEVELOPMENT AIDED BY UPR IMPULSE
APPROACHING FROM NV. STRENGTH OF LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY WIND
FIELD AND RELATIVELY STEEP LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND POSSIBLY DMGG SFC WIND
GUSTS DESPITE SPARSE MOISTURE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 21040.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 86 SEVERE TSTM ID MT WY 222030Z - 230400Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35SE MLD/MALAD CITY ID/ - 40WNW 3HT/HARLOWTON MT/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /37SE MLD - 48WSW LWT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21040.
LAT...LON 41791308 46631198 46630923 41791055
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 86 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 86
VALID 230130Z - 230240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N EVW TO
45 ENE WEY TO 45 NW COD.
..KERR..04/23/14
ATTN...WFO...PIH...TFX...BYZ...RIW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 86
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
WYC023-029-039-230240-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LINCOLN PARK TETON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 86
VALID 230050Z - 230140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE MLD
TO 25 ENE WEY TO 45 WNW 3HT.
..KERR..04/23/14
ATTN...WFO...PIH...TFX...BYZ...RIW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 86
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IDC005-007-011-019-029-033-041-043-051-065-071-081-230140-
ID
. IDAHO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNOCK BEAR LAKE BINGHAM
BONNEVILLE CARIBOU CLARK
FRANKLIN FREMONT JEFFERSON
MADISON ONEIDA TETON
$$
MTC001-007-031-057-059-067-097-107-230140-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVERHEAD BROADWATER GALLATIN
MADISON MEAGHER PARK
SWEET GRASS WHEATLAND
$$
WYC023-029-039-230140-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LINCOLN PARK TETON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 86
VALID 222340Z - 230040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MLD TO
40 SSW WEY TO 5 NNE HLN.
..KERR..04/22/14
ATTN...WFO...PIH...TFX...BYZ...RIW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 86
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IDC005-007-011-019-029-033-041-043-051-065-071-081-230040-
ID
. IDAHO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNOCK BEAR LAKE BINGHAM
BONNEVILLE CARIBOU CLARK
FRANKLIN FREMONT JEFFERSON
MADISON ONEIDA TETON
$$
MTC001-007-031-057-059-067-097-107-230040-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVERHEAD BROADWATER GALLATIN
MADISON MEAGHER PARK
SWEET GRASS WHEATLAND
$$
WYC023-029-039-230040-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LINCOLN PARK TETON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 86
VALID 222140Z - 222240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW MLD TO
25 SSE PIH TO 35 SSE MQM TO 25 NE MQM TO 30 ESE DLN TO 20 NE DLN.
..KERR..04/22/14
ATTN...WFO...PIH...TFX...BYZ...RIW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 86
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IDC005-007-011-019-029-033-041-043-051-065-071-081-222240-
ID
. IDAHO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNOCK BEAR LAKE BINGHAM
BONNEVILLE CARIBOU CLARK
FRANKLIN FREMONT JEFFERSON
MADISON ONEIDA TETON
$$
MTC001-007-031-057-059-067-097-107-222240-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVERHEAD BROADWATER GALLATIN
MADISON MEAGHER PARK
SWEET GRASS WHEATLAND
$$
WYC023-029-039-222240-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LINCOLN PARK TETON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.