Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 170
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
WESTERN NEBRASKA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 245 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY
NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
CHADRON NEBRASKA TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
DISCUSSION...INITIATION OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BOTH WITHIN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE LEE SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO...AND ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS. AS
ACTIVITY SPREADS NORTHWARD/NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE
WITH STRONGEST STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING. TORNADIC POTENTIAL MAY BE
A BIT SLOWER TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS KANSAS...THAN IN
THE COOLER UPSLOPE REGIME TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENING AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
SUPPORT A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.
...KERR
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 170 TORNADO CO KS NE 181945Z - 190400Z
AXIS..100 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
5NNE CDR/CHADRON NE/ - 30SE P28/MEDICINE LODGE KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM E/W /63NNE BFF - 40NNW END/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.
LAT...LON 42880108 36979637 36970001 42880504
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 170 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 170
VALID 190215Z - 190340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW AVK
TO 35 WSW CNK TO 15 WSW BBW TO 35 WNW MHN TO 55 W VTN.
..SMITH..05/19/13
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...DDC...ICT...GID...LBF...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 170
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-009-015-017-033-035-053-077-079-095-105-113-115-123-151-
155-159-169-173-191-190340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BARTON BUTLER
CHASE COMANCHE COWLEY
ELLSWORTH HARPER HARVEY
KINGMAN LINCOLN MCPHERSON
MARION MITCHELL PRATT
RENO RICE SALINE
SEDGWICK SUMNER
$$
NEC031-171-190340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHERRY THOMAS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 170
VALID 190115Z - 190240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE AKO
TO 15 ENE CDR.
..MARSH..05/19/13
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...DDC...ICT...GID...LBF...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 170
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC125-190240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
YUMA
$$
KSC007-009-015-023-025-033-035-039-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-
069-077-079-083-095-097-101-105-113-115-119-123-135-137-141-145-
147-151-153-155-159-163-165-167-169-171-173-179-183-185-191-193-
195-190240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BARTON BUTLER
CHEYENNE CLARK COMANCHE
COWLEY DECATUR EDWARDS
ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY
FORD GOVE GRAHAM
GRAY HARPER HARVEY
HODGEMAN KINGMAN KIOWA
LANE LINCOLN MCPHERSON
MARION MEADE MITCHELL
NESS NORTON OSBORNE
PAWNEE PHILLIPS PRATT
RAWLINS RENO RICE
ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL
SALINE SCOTT SEDGWICK
SHERIDAN SMITH STAFFORD
SUMNER THOMAS TREGO
$$
NEC005-029-031-047-049-057-061-063-065-069-073-075-083-085-087-
091-101-111-113-117-135-137-145-161-171-190240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR CHASE CHERRY
DAWSON DEUEL DUNDY
FRANKLIN FRONTIER FURNAS
GARDEN GOSPER GRANT
HARLAN HAYES HITCHCOCK
HOOKER KEITH LINCOLN
LOGAN MCPHERSON PERKINS
PHELPS RED WILLOW SHERIDAN
THOMAS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 170
VALID 182300Z - 190040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 678
..SMITH..05/18/13
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...DDC...ICT...GID...LBF...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 170
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-063-075-095-115-121-125-190040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LOGAN
PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON
YUMA
$$
KSC007-009-015-023-025-033-035-039-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-
069-071-077-079-083-095-097-101-105-109-113-115-119-123-135-137-
141-145-147-151-153-155-159-163-165-167-169-171-173-179-181-183-
185-191-193-195-199-203-190040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BARTON BUTLER
CHEYENNE CLARK COMANCHE
COWLEY DECATUR EDWARDS
ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY
FORD GOVE GRAHAM
GRAY GREELEY HARPER
HARVEY HODGEMAN KINGMAN
KIOWA LANE LINCOLN
LOGAN MCPHERSON MARION
MEADE MITCHELL NESS
NORTON OSBORNE PAWNEE
PHILLIPS PRATT RAWLINS
RENO RICE ROOKS
RUSH RUSSELL SALINE
SCOTT SEDGWICK SHERIDAN
SHERMAN SMITH STAFFORD
SUMNER THOMAS TREGO
WALLACE WICHITA
$$
NEC005-007-013-029-031-033-045-047-049-057-061-063-065-069-073-
075-083-085-087-091-101-105-111-113-117-123-135-137-145-157-161-
165-171-190040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE
CHASE CHERRY CHEYENNE
DAWES DAWSON DEUEL
DUNDY FRANKLIN FRONTIER
FURNAS GARDEN GOSPER
GRANT HARLAN HAYES
HITCHCOCK HOOKER KEITH
KIMBALL LINCOLN LOGAN
MCPHERSON MORRILL PERKINS
PHELPS RED WILLOW SCOTTS BLUFF
SHERIDAN SIOUX THOMAS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 170
VALID 182145Z - 182240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SMITH..05/18/13
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...DDC...ICT...GID...LBF...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 170
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-063-075-095-115-121-125-182240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LOGAN
PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON
YUMA
$$
KSC007-009-015-023-025-033-035-039-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-
069-071-077-079-083-095-097-101-105-109-113-115-119-123-135-137-
141-145-147-151-153-155-159-163-165-167-169-171-173-179-181-183-
185-191-193-195-199-203-182240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BARTON BUTLER
CHEYENNE CLARK COMANCHE
COWLEY DECATUR EDWARDS
ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY
FORD GOVE GRAHAM
GRAY GREELEY HARPER
HARVEY HODGEMAN KINGMAN
KIOWA LANE LINCOLN
LOGAN MCPHERSON MARION
MEADE MITCHELL NESS
NORTON OSBORNE PAWNEE
PHILLIPS PRATT RAWLINS
RENO RICE ROOKS
RUSH RUSSELL SALINE
SCOTT SEDGWICK SHERIDAN
SHERMAN SMITH STAFFORD
SUMNER THOMAS TREGO
WALLACE WICHITA
$$
NEC005-007-013-029-031-033-045-047-049-057-061-063-065-069-073-
075-083-085-087-091-101-105-111-113-117-123-135-137-145-157-161-
165-171-182240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE
CHASE CHERRY CHEYENNE
DAWES DAWSON DEUEL
DUNDY FRANKLIN FRONTIER
FURNAS GARDEN GOSPER
GRANT HARLAN HAYES
HITCHCOCK HOOKER KEITH
KIMBALL LINCOLN LOGAN
MCPHERSON MORRILL PERKINS
PHELPS RED WILLOW SCOTTS BLUFF
SHERIDAN SIOUX THOMAS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.