Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 382
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
120 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST COLORADO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL
900 PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF LA JUNTA COLORADO TO 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
TUCUMCARI NEW MEXICO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 381...
DISCUSSION...RECENT TSTM INITIATION HAS OCCURRED OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF S-CNTRL CO/N-CNTRL NM WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR FARTHER TO THE E ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS OF FAR SERN CO. AMBIENT AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED
BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS
INSTABILITY COINCIDES WITH A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING A
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH 40-45 KT OF DEEP WNWLY SHEAR.
AS SUCH...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28020.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 382 SEVERE TSTM CO NM OK TX 121920Z - 130300Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35NNE LHX/LA JUNTA CO/ - 35WSW TCC/TUCUMCARI NM/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /33NW LAA - 30WSW TCC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28020.
LAT...LON 38500198 34970293 34970541 38500456
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 382 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 382
VALID 130235Z - 130340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW LVS
TO 20 SSW DHT.
..SPC..06/13/12
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 382
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC019-021-037-047-130340-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GUADALUPE HARDING QUAY
SAN MIGUEL
$$
TXC205-130340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARTLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 382
VALID 130145Z - 130240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N LVS TO
25 N DHT.
..SPC..06/13/12
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 382
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC019-021-033-037-047-059-130240-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GUADALUPE HARDING MORA
QUAY SAN MIGUEL UNION
$$
TXC111-117-205-359-130240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DALLAM DEAF SMITH HARTLEY
OLDHAM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 382
VALID 122345Z - 130040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..06/12/12
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 382
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-025-061-071-089-099-130040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CROWLEY
KIOWA LAS ANIMAS OTERO
PROWERS
$$
NMC007-019-021-033-037-047-059-130040-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLFAX GUADALUPE HARDING
MORA QUAY SAN MIGUEL
UNION
$$
OKC025-130040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON
$$
TXC111-117-205-359-130040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DALLAM DEAF SMITH HARTLEY
OLDHAM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (50%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
