Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 76
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
430 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
LAKE ERIE
LAKE HURON
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 430 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BAD AXE MICHIGAN TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF ANN ARBOR MICHIGAN. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 75...
DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE INTENSIFYING ALONG A CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM
JUST WEST OF SAGINAW BAY TO NORTHWEST OF TOLEDO. ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AND MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WITH SEASONABLY COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE RESULTING IN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 2000 J PER KG /SEE 18Z DTX RAOB/.
ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG, 30 KT WESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26020.
...WEISS
Note:
See the experimental Public Watch (SEL) product with explicit hazard
information section below.
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 76
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
430 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
LAKE ERIE
LAKE HURON
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 430 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BAD AXE MICHIGAN TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF ANN ARBOR MICHIGAN. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 75...
DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE INTENSIFYING ALONG A CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM
JUST WEST OF SAGINAW BAY TO NORTHWEST OF TOLEDO. ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AND MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WITH SEASONABLY COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE RESULTING IN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 2000 J PER KG /SEE 18Z DTX RAOB/.
ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG, 30 KT WESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26020.
...WEISS
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 76
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
430 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
LAKE ERIE
LAKE HURON
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 430 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BAD AXE MICHIGAN TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF ANN ARBOR MICHIGAN. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 75...
DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE INTENSIFYING ALONG A CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM
JUST WEST OF SAGINAW BAY TO NORTHWEST OF TOLEDO. ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AND MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WITH SEASONABLY COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE RESULTING IN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 2000 J PER KG /SEE 18Z DTX RAOB/.
ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG, 30 KT WESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26020.
...WEISS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 76 SEVERE TSTM MI LE LH 152030Z - 160100Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
10NW BAX/BAD AXE MI/ - 35S ARB/ANN ARBOR MI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM E/W /36SSE ASP - 34SSW DXO/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26020.
LAT...LON 43888212 41708277 41708472 43888413
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 76 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 76
VALID 160030Z - 160140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 263
..HURLBUT..03/16/12
ATTN...WFO...DTX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 76
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC017-049-063-087-091-093-099-111-115-125-145-147-151-155-157-
161-163-160140-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY GENESEE HURON
LAPEER LENAWEE LIVINGSTON
MACOMB MIDLAND MONROE
OAKLAND SAGINAW ST. CLAIR
SANILAC SHIAWASSEE TUSCOLA
WASHTENAW WAYNE
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-462-463-464-
160140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 76
VALID 152340Z - 160040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..03/15/12
ATTN...WFO...DTX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 76
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC017-049-063-087-091-093-099-111-115-125-145-147-151-155-157-
161-163-160040-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY GENESEE HURON
LAPEER LENAWEE LIVINGSTON
MACOMB MIDLAND MONROE
OAKLAND SAGINAW ST. CLAIR
SANILAC SHIAWASSEE TUSCOLA
WASHTENAW WAYNE
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-462-463-464-
160040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 76
VALID 152240Z - 152340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..03/15/12
ATTN...WFO...DTX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 76
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC017-049-063-087-091-093-099-111-115-125-145-147-151-155-157-
161-163-152340-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY GENESEE HURON
LAPEER LENAWEE LIVINGSTON
MACOMB MIDLAND MONROE
OAKLAND SAGINAW ST. CLAIR
SANILAC SHIAWASSEE TUSCOLA
WASHTENAW WAYNE
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-462-463-464-
152340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 76
VALID 152155Z - 152240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 260
..HURLBUT..03/15/12
ATTN...WFO...DTX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 76
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC017-049-063-087-091-093-099-111-115-125-145-147-151-155-157-
161-163-152240-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY GENESEE HURON
LAPEER LENAWEE LIVINGSTON
MACOMB MIDLAND MONROE
OAKLAND SAGINAW ST. CLAIR
SANILAC SHIAWASSEE TUSCOLA
WASHTENAW WAYNE
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-462-463-464-
152240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
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