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SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 463
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF ELKHART KANSAS TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF ALVA
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 462...
DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS WEAKENING ALONG AND N OF A
WARM FRONT IN THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK...WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY COINCIDES WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE
PROBABLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS TO ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
OTHERWISE...THE SUPERCELLS IN SE CO COULD EVENTUALLY GROW INTO A
CLUSTER AND MOVE EWD/ESEWD INTO THE WATCH AREA FROM THE W. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS INTO EARLY
TONIGHT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28020.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 463 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 112040Z - 120400Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
20NNW EHA/ELKHART KS/ - 50SSE AVK/ALVA OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM N/S /53WNW LBL - 25SW END/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28020.
LAT...LON 38340204 37189833 35029833 36180204
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 463 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 463
VALID 120235Z - 120340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE CDS
TO 35 SSW GAG TO 30 SSE LBL TO 40 E DDC.
..ROGERS..06/12/11
ATTN...WFO...DDC...OUN...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 463
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-033-097-120340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER COMANCHE KIOWA
$$
OKC003-007-009-011-039-043-045-059-093-129-149-151-153-120340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM
BLAINE CUSTER DEWEY
ELLIS HARPER MAJOR
ROGER MILLS WASHITA WOODS
WOODWARD
$$
TXC295-120340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LIPSCOMB
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 463
VALID 120145Z - 120240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE DHT
TO 25 N GCK.
..ROGERS..06/12/11
ATTN...WFO...DDC...OUN...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 463
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-025-033-055-057-067-069-081-083-097-119-175-189-120240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER CLARK COMANCHE
FINNEY FORD GRANT
GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN
KIOWA MEADE SEWARD
STEVENS
$$
OKC003-007-009-011-039-043-045-059-093-129-139-149-151-153-
120240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM
BLAINE CUSTER DEWEY
ELLIS HARPER MAJOR
ROGER MILLS TEXAS WASHITA
WOODS WOODWARD
$$
TXC195-211-233-295-357-393-421-483-120240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HANSFORD HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON
LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE ROBERTS
SHERMAN WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 463
VALID 120045Z - 120140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..ROGERS..06/12/11
ATTN...WFO...DDC...OUN...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 463
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-025-033-055-057-067-069-075-081-083-093-097-119-129-175-
187-189-120140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER CLARK COMANCHE
FINNEY FORD GRANT
GRAY HAMILTON HASKELL
HODGEMAN KEARNY KIOWA
MEADE MORTON SEWARD
STANTON STEVENS
$$
OKC003-007-009-011-025-039-043-045-059-093-129-139-149-151-153-
120140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM
BLAINE CIMARRON CUSTER
DEWEY ELLIS HARPER
MAJOR ROGER MILLS TEXAS
WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD
$$
TXC195-211-233-295-357-393-421-483-120140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HANSFORD HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON
LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE ROBERTS
SHERMAN WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 463
VALID 112345Z - 120040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1187
..ROGERS..06/11/11
ATTN...WFO...DDC...OUN...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 463
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-025-033-055-057-067-069-075-081-083-093-097-119-129-175-
187-189-120040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER CLARK COMANCHE
FINNEY FORD GRANT
GRAY HAMILTON HASKELL
HODGEMAN KEARNY KIOWA
MEADE MORTON SEWARD
STANTON STEVENS
$$
OKC003-007-009-011-025-039-043-045-059-093-129-139-149-151-153-
120040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM
BLAINE CIMARRON CUSTER
DEWEY ELLIS HARPER
MAJOR ROGER MILLS TEXAS
WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD
$$
TXC195-211-233-295-357-393-421-483-120040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HANSFORD HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON
LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE ROBERTS
SHERMAN WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 463
VALID 112240Z - 112340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..ROGERS..06/11/11
ATTN...WFO...DDC...OUN...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 463
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-025-033-055-057-067-069-075-081-083-093-097-119-129-175-
187-189-112340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER CLARK COMANCHE
FINNEY FORD GRANT
GRAY HAMILTON HASKELL
HODGEMAN KEARNY KIOWA
MEADE MORTON SEWARD
STANTON STEVENS
$$
OKC003-007-009-011-025-039-043-045-059-093-129-139-149-151-153-
112340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM
BLAINE CIMARRON CUSTER
DEWEY ELLIS HARPER
MAJOR ROGER MILLS TEXAS
WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD
$$
TXC195-211-233-295-357-393-421-483-112340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HANSFORD HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON
LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE ROBERTS
SHERMAN WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.