Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 395
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1010 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES EAST OF
FORT SMITH ARKANSAS TO 25 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 390...WW 392...WW
393...WW 394...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES N OF
TIGHTENING WSW-ENE ORIENTED CONFLUENCE AXIS THROUGH CNTRL/ERN OK.
NOCTURNAL READJUSTMENT/VEERING/STRENGTHENING OF LOW LVL WIND
FIELD...CONTINUING PRESENCE OF EML...AND LARGE RESERVOIR OF VERY
MOIST AIR S OF CONFLUENCE AXIS TOGETHER SUGGEST GOOD CHANCE OF VERY
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND. AMPLE DEEP SHEAR IS PRESENT FOR
SUPERCELLS. LOW LVL SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH EWD EXTENT IN WW...AND
ERN HALF OF WW MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO TORNADO LATER TONIGHT IF STORM
MODE/MOVEMENT BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SEMI-DISCRETE STRUCTURES.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28020.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 395 SEVERE TSTM AR OK 130310Z - 131000Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
65E FSM/FORT SMITH AR/ - 25WNW OKC/OKLAHOMA CITY OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM N/S /52E FSM - 22WNW OKC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28020.
LAT...LON 34389322 34599801 36479801 36279322
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 395 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 395
VALID 130835Z - 130940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE MLC TO
10 SE FYV TO 15 S HRO.
..BROYLES..06/13/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 395
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC033-047-071-083-097-101-113-127-131-149-130940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON
LOGAN MONTGOMERY NEWTON
POLK SCOTT SEBASTIAN
YELL
$$
OKC079-130940-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LE FLORE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 395
VALID 130740Z - 130840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW MLC TO
25 NNE MLC TO 10 S FYV TO 15 SSE HRO.
..BROYLES..06/13/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 395
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC033-047-071-083-097-101-113-127-131-149-130840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON
LOGAN MONTGOMERY NEWTON
POLK SCOTT SEBASTIAN
YELL
$$
OKC005-061-077-079-121-127-135-130840-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA HASKELL LATIMER
LE FLORE PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA
SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 395
VALID 130700Z - 130840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW ADM
TO 15 SE OKC TO 15 ESE CQB TO 15 WNW FYV TO 20 W HRO.
..BROYLES..06/13/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 395
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC033-047-071-083-087-097-101-113-127-131-143-149-130840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON
LOGAN MADISON MONTGOMERY
NEWTON POLK SCOTT
SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON YELL
$$
OKC001-005-021-027-029-049-061-063-077-079-087-091-101-107-111-
121-123-125-127-133-135-130840-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ATOKA CHEROKEE
CLEVELAND COAL GARVIN
HASKELL HUGHES LATIMER
LE FLORE MCCLAIN MCINTOSH
MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE
PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE
PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 395
VALID 130450Z - 130540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..06/13/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 395
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-047-071-083-087-097-101-113-127-131-143-149-
130540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN
MADISON MONTGOMERY NEWTON
POLK SCOTT SEBASTIAN
WASHINGTON YELL
$$
OKC001-005-017-021-027-029-037-041-049-051-061-063-073-077-079-
081-083-087-091-097-101-107-109-111-119-121-123-125-127-131-133-
135-143-145-130540-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ATOKA CANADIAN
CHEROKEE CLEVELAND COAL
CREEK DELAWARE GARVIN
GRADY HASKELL HUGHES
KINGFISHER LATIMER LE FLORE
LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN
MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE
OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE
PAYNE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC
POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA ROGERS
SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH TULSA
WAGONER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (90%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.