Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 163
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
500 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 500 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF GARDEN CITY KANSAS TO 145 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
CHILDRESS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 160...WW 161...WW 162...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG N/S DRY
LINE/CONVERGENCE ZONE WHERE AIR MASS HAS BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD OF
STRONG UPPER LOW. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...PARTICULARLY
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. WHILE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG...LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN PRIMARY
LARGE HAIL THREAT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 19030.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 163 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 172200Z - 180300Z
AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45WNW GCK/GARDEN CITY KS/ - 145SSE CDS/CHILDRESS TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM E/W /39WNW GCK - 27E ABI/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 19030.
LAT...LON 38160075 32499863 32490001 38160222
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 163 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 163
VALID 180250Z - 180340Z
THIS IS THE FINAL STATUS REPORT FOR WW 163...AS THE SEVERE
THREAT HAS WANED ACROSS THE SWRN KS...WRN OK...AND WRN N-CNTRL
TX.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 507
..SMITH..04/18/09
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...OUN...LUB...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 163
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC067-075-175-187-189-180340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GRANT HAMILTON SEWARD
STANTON STEVENS
$$
OKC007-045-129-180340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER ELLIS ROGER MILLS
$$
TXC207-211-253-295-357-393-417-433-447-180340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HASKELL HEMPHILL JONES
LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE ROBERTS
SHACKELFORD STONEWALL THROCKMORTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 163
VALID 180105Z - 180240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW ABI
TO 40 ESE BGD TO 40 N EHA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 506
..SMITH..04/18/09
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...OUN...LUB...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 163
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC067-075-175-187-189-180240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GRANT HAMILTON SEWARD
STANTON STEVENS
$$
OKC007-009-045-055-057-065-129-180240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER BECKHAM ELLIS
GREER HARMON JACKSON
ROGER MILLS
$$
TXC023-087-155-197-207-211-253-275-295-357-393-417-433-447-483-
487-180240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAYLOR COLLINGSWORTH FOARD
HARDEMAN HASKELL HEMPHILL
JONES KNOX LIPSCOMB
OCHILTREE ROBERTS SHACKELFORD
STONEWALL THROCKMORTON WHEELER
WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 163
VALID 172330Z - 180040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SMITH..04/17/09
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...OUN...LUB...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 163
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC067-075-129-175-187-189-180040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GRANT HAMILTON MORTON
SEWARD STANTON STEVENS
$$
OKC007-009-045-055-057-065-129-139-180040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER BECKHAM ELLIS
GREER HARMON JACKSON
ROGER MILLS TEXAS
$$
TXC023-075-087-101-155-197-207-211-253-269-275-295-357-393-417-
433-447-483-487-180040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAYLOR CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH
COTTLE FOARD HARDEMAN
HASKELL HEMPHILL JONES
KING KNOX LIPSCOMB
OCHILTREE ROBERTS SHACKELFORD
STONEWALL THROCKMORTON WHEELER
WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.