Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 57
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM UNTIL
700 PM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST OF NEW
BRAUNFELS TEXAS TO 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF SHERMAN TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL
CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS WW THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF VERY STRONG UPPER
SYSTEM NOW MOVING ACROSS SWRN TX. DESPITE COOL AND STABLE SURFACE
CONDITIONS...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG ASCENT WILL
MAINTAIN A FEW STRONGER STORMS. IN ADDITION...SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22035.
...EVANS
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 57
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM UNTIL
700 PM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST OF NEW
BRAUNFELS TEXAS TO 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF SHERMAN TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL
CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS WW THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF VERY STRONG UPPER
SYSTEM NOW MOVING ACROSS SWRN TX. DESPITE COOL AND STABLE SURFACE
CONDITIONS...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG ASCENT WILL
MAINTAIN A FEW STRONGER STORMS. IN ADDITION...SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22035.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 57 SEVERE TSTM TX 161835Z - 170100Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
65W BAZ/NEW BRAUNFELS TX/ - 20WNW GYI/SHERMAN TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /34W SAT - 24SSE ADM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.
LAT...LON 29700036 33819830 33819569 29709786
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 57 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 57
VALID 170030Z - 170100Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE AUS TO
15 NNE TPL TO 35 WNW CRS TO 5 ENE DAL TO 10 NE GYI.
WW 57 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 170100Z.
..SCHNEIDER..02/17/08
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 57
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC085-113-119-139-147-217-223-231-277-309-397-170100-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLLIN DALLAS DELTA
ELLIS FANNIN HILL
HOPKINS HUNT LAMAR
MCLENNAN ROCKWALL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 57
VALID 162335Z - 170040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE AUS TO
20 W ACT TO 20 S FTW TO 10 NW GYI.
..SCHNEIDER..02/16/08
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 57
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC027-085-113-119-139-147-181-217-223-231-251-277-309-397-
170040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELL COLLIN DALLAS
DELTA ELLIS FANNIN
GRAYSON HILL HOPKINS
HUNT JOHNSON LAMAR
MCLENNAN ROCKWALL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 57
VALID 162240Z - 162340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE AUS
TO 25 SSW TPL TO 50 W TPL TO 35 NNW BWD.
..SCHNEIDER..02/16/08
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 57
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-147-181-193-
217-221-223-231-237-251-277-281-309-333-337-363-367-397-425-429-
439-497-503-162340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELL BOSQUE COLLIN
COMANCHE COOKE CORYELL
DALLAS DELTA DENTON
EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH
FANNIN GRAYSON HAMILTON
HILL HOOD HOPKINS
HUNT JACK JOHNSON
LAMAR LAMPASAS MCLENNAN
MILLS MONTAGUE PALO PINTO
PARKER ROCKWALL SOMERVELL
STEPHENS TARRANT WISE
YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 57
VALID 162210Z - 162340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S AUS TO
25 SSW TPL TO 55 SSE BWD TO 30 NNW BWD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 243
..SCHNEIDER..02/16/08
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 57
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-147-181-193-
217-221-223-231-237-251-277-281-309-333-337-363-367-397-425-429-
439-497-503-162340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELL BOSQUE COLLIN
COMANCHE COOKE CORYELL
DALLAS DELTA DENTON
EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH
FANNIN GRAYSON HAMILTON
HILL HOOD HOPKINS
HUNT JACK JOHNSON
LAMAR LAMPASAS MCLENNAN
MILLS MONTAGUE PALO PINTO
PARKER ROCKWALL SOMERVELL
STEPHENS TARRANT WISE
YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 57
VALID 162125Z - 162240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW SAT TO
45 ESE JCT TO 45 S BWD TO 20 NNW BWD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 243 WHICH
WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY
..SCHNEIDER..02/16/08
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 57
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC027-031-035-053-085-091-093-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-
147-171-181-193-209-217-221-223-231-237-251-259-277-281-299-309-
333-337-363-367-397-425-429-439-453-491-497-503-162240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELL BLANCO BOSQUE
BURNET COLLIN COMAL
COMANCHE COOKE CORYELL
DALLAS DELTA DENTON
EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH
FANNIN GILLESPIE GRAYSON
HAMILTON HAYS HILL
HOOD HOPKINS HUNT
JACK JOHNSON KENDALL
LAMAR LAMPASAS LLANO
MCLENNAN MILLS MONTAGUE
PALO PINTO PARKER ROCKWALL
SOMERVELL STEPHENS TARRANT
TRAVIS WILLIAMSON WISE
YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 57
VALID 162035Z - 162140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SCHNEIDER..02/16/08
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 57
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-027-031-035-049-053-083-085-091-093-097-099-113-119-121-
133-139-143-147-171-181-193-209-217-221-223-231-237-251-259-265-
267-277-281-299-307-309-319-327-333-337-363-367-397-411-425-429-
439-453-491-497-503-162140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BELL BLANCO
BOSQUE BROWN BURNET
COLEMAN COLLIN COMAL
COMANCHE COOKE CORYELL
DALLAS DELTA DENTON
EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH
FANNIN GILLESPIE GRAYSON
HAMILTON HAYS HILL
HOOD HOPKINS HUNT
JACK JOHNSON KENDALL
KERR KIMBLE LAMAR
LAMPASAS LLANO MCCULLOCH
MCLENNAN MASON MENARD
MILLS MONTAGUE PALO PINTO
PARKER ROCKWALL SAN SABA
SOMERVELL STEPHENS TARRANT
TRAVIS WILLIAMSON WISE
YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 57
VALID 161930Z - 162040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SCHNEIDER..02/16/08
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 57
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-027-031-035-049-053-083-085-091-093-097-099-113-121-133-
137-139-143-147-171-181-193-209-217-221-231-237-251-257-259-265-
267-281-299-307-309-319-327-333-337-349-363-367-385-397-411-425-
429-439-453-491-497-503-162040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BELL BLANCO
BOSQUE BROWN BURNET
COLEMAN COLLIN COMAL
COMANCHE COOKE CORYELL
DALLAS DENTON EASTLAND
EDWARDS ELLIS ERATH
FANNIN GILLESPIE GRAYSON
HAMILTON HAYS HILL
HOOD HUNT JACK
JOHNSON KAUFMAN KENDALL
KERR KIMBLE LAMPASAS
LLANO MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN
MASON MENARD MILLS
MONTAGUE NAVARRO PALO PINTO
PARKER REAL ROCKWALL
SAN SABA SOMERVELL STEPHENS
TARRANT TRAVIS WILLIAMSON
WISE YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (<5%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.