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Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 704
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF ENID OKLAHOMA
TO 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 703...
DISCUSSION...WITH A MDT AIR MASS IN PLACE E OF DRY LINE/COLD FRONT
WRN OK AND CINH RAPIDLY WEAKENING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP RAPIDLY WRN PORTION OF WATCH. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
FORECASTED LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO INCREASE...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT
WITH FAVORABLE LOW LCLS AND SHEAR PROFILES THERE IS A TORNADO THREAT
WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELL THAT FORMS. ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
DEVELOP EWD THIS EVENING AS STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD IN STRONG
STEERING FLOW.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 704 TORNADO OK TX 142045Z - 150300Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25W END/ENID OK/ - 60SW SPS/WICHITA FALLS TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /22W END - 50SW SPS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.
LAT...LON 36349737 33349827 33340019 36349936
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 704 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 704
VALID 150235Z - 150300Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N ABI TO
25 WNW SPS TO 10 NNW FSI TO 20 W OKC TO 30 ESE END.
LINE OF STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL OK SWWD INTO NWRN TX ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SLOWLY WEAKNENING...SO NO NEW WW IS ANTICIPATED.
..IMY..10/15/07
ATTN...WFO...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 704
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC031-033-051-067-137-150340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COMANCHE COTTON GRADY
JEFFERSON STEPHENS
$$
TXC009-023-077-485-150340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY
WICHITA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 704
VALID 150130Z - 150240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N ABI TO
25 SSE LTS TO 35 NNW FSI TO 5 E END.
..IMY..10/15/07
ATTN...WFO...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 704
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC015-017-031-033-051-067-073-137-141-150240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CADDO CANADIAN COMANCHE
COTTON GRADY JEFFERSON
KINGFISHER STEPHENS TILLMAN
$$
TXC009-023-077-485-487-150240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY
WICHITA WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 704
VALID 150035Z - 150140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N ABI TO
60 WSW SPS TO 10 S LTS TO 15 ESE CSM TO 35 NE CSM TO 30 SSE AVK.
..IMY..10/15/07
ATTN...WFO...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 704
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC011-015-017-031-033-051-067-073-075-137-141-150140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN
COMANCHE COTTON GRADY
JEFFERSON KINGFISHER KIOWA
STEPHENS TILLMAN
$$
TXC009-023-077-485-487-150140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY
WICHITA WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 704
VALID 142340Z - 150040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW ABI
TO 60 WSW SPS TO 15 WSW LTS TO 10 W CSM TO 20 NNW CSM TO 30 S AVK.
..IMY..10/14/07
ATTN...WFO...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 704
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC011-015-017-031-033-039-043-051-065-067-073-075-137-141-149-
150040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN
COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER
DEWEY GRADY JACKSON
JEFFERSON KINGFISHER KIOWA
STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA
$$
TXC009-023-077-275-485-487-150040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY
KNOX WICHITA WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 704
VALID 142250Z - 142340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2079
..LEVIT..10/14/07
ATTN...WFO...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 704
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC009-011-015-017-031-033-039-043-051-055-057-065-067-073-075-
137-141-149-142340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO
CANADIAN COMANCHE COTTON
CUSTER DEWEY GRADY
GREER HARMON JACKSON
JEFFERSON KINGFISHER KIOWA
STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA
$$
TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-142340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY
FOARD HARDEMAN KNOX
WICHITA WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 704
VALID 142140Z - 142240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LEVIT..10/14/07
ATTN...WFO...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 704
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC009-011-015-017-031-033-039-043-051-055-057-065-067-073-075-
137-141-149-142240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO
CANADIAN COMANCHE COTTON
CUSTER DEWEY GRADY
GREER HARMON JACKSON
JEFFERSON KINGFISHER KIOWA
STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA
$$
TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-142240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY
FOARD HARDEMAN KNOX
WICHITA WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
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