Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
955 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 955 AM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
BROKEN BOW NEBRASKA TO 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RUSSELL KANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...VERY POTENT TORNADIC SUPERCELL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS
WATCH AREA AS AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH VERY FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES. WITH LITTLE INHIBITION REMAINING ALONG E OF DRY
LINE...STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WRN
KS INTO SWRN NEB. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LONG TRACK/VIOLENT TORNADOS. AS DRY LINE REMAINS WRN KS THRU
THE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE
LIKELY OFF THE DRY LINE THRU THE EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.
...HALES
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
955 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 955 AM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
BROKEN BOW NEBRASKA TO 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RUSSELL KANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...VERY POTENT TORNADIC SUPERCELL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS
WATCH AREA AS AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH VERY FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES. WITH LITTLE INHIBITION REMAINING ALONG E OF DRY
LINE...STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WRN
KS INTO SWRN NEB. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LONG TRACK/VIOLENT TORNADOS. AS DRY LINE REMAINS WRN KS THRU
THE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE
LIKELY OFF THE DRY LINE THRU THE EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 232 TORNADO KS NE 051455Z - 060300Z
AXIS..100 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45NNW BBW/BROKEN BOW NE/ - 55SW RSL/RUSSELL KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM E/W /32S ANW - 61ENE GCK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..4 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..80 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.
LAT...LON 42009801 38279769 38270137 42000191
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 232 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 232
VALID 052235Z - 052340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..05/05/07
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GLD...DDC...GID...LBF...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 232
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC009-039-051-053-063-065-089-101-105-109-123-135-137-141-147-
153-159-163-165-167-171-179-183-193-195-052340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON DECATUR ELLIS
ELLSWORTH GOVE GRAHAM
JEWELL LANE LINCOLN
LOGAN MITCHELL NESS
NORTON OSBORNE PHILLIPS
RAWLINS RICE ROOKS
RUSH RUSSELL SCOTT
SHERIDAN SMITH THOMAS
TREGO
$$
NEC001-009-011-019-029-035-041-047-057-061-063-065-071-073-077-
079-081-083-085-087-091-093-099-101-111-113-115-117-121-125-129-
135-137-143-145-163-171-175-181-183-052340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BLAINE BOONE
BUFFALO CHASE CLAY
CUSTER DAWSON DUNDY
FRANKLIN FRONTIER FURNAS
GARFIELD GOSPER GREELEY
HALL HAMILTON HARLAN
HAYES HITCHCOCK HOOKER
HOWARD KEARNEY KEITH
LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP
MCPHERSON MERRICK NANCE
NUCKOLLS PERKINS PHELPS
POLK RED WILLOW SHERMAN
THOMAS VALLEY WEBSTER
WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 232
VALID 052140Z - 052240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..05/05/07
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GLD...DDC...GID...LBF...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 232
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC009-039-051-053-063-065-089-101-105-109-123-135-137-141-147-
153-159-163-165-167-171-179-183-193-195-052240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON DECATUR ELLIS
ELLSWORTH GOVE GRAHAM
JEWELL LANE LINCOLN
LOGAN MITCHELL NESS
NORTON OSBORNE PHILLIPS
RAWLINS RICE ROOKS
RUSH RUSSELL SCOTT
SHERIDAN SMITH THOMAS
TREGO
$$
NEC001-009-011-019-029-035-041-047-057-061-063-065-071-073-077-
079-081-083-085-087-091-093-099-101-111-113-115-117-121-125-129-
135-137-143-145-163-171-175-181-183-052240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BLAINE BOONE
BUFFALO CHASE CLAY
CUSTER DAWSON DUNDY
FRANKLIN FRONTIER FURNAS
GARFIELD GOSPER GREELEY
HALL HAMILTON HARLAN
HAYES HITCHCOCK HOOKER
HOWARD KEARNEY KEITH
LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP
MCPHERSON MERRICK NANCE
NUCKOLLS PERKINS PHELPS
POLK RED WILLOW SHERMAN
THOMAS VALLEY WEBSTER
WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 232
VALID 052030Z - 052140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/05/07
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GLD...DDC...GID...LBF...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 232
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC009-023-039-051-053-063-065-089-101-105-109-123-135-137-141-
147-153-159-163-165-167-171-179-181-183-193-195-052140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON CHEYENNE DECATUR
ELLIS ELLSWORTH GOVE
GRAHAM JEWELL LANE
LINCOLN LOGAN MITCHELL
NESS NORTON OSBORNE
PHILLIPS RAWLINS RICE
ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL
SCOTT SHERIDAN SHERMAN
SMITH THOMAS TREGO
$$
NEC001-009-011-019-029-035-041-047-057-061-063-065-071-073-077-
079-081-083-085-087-091-093-099-101-111-113-115-117-121-125-129-
135-137-143-145-163-171-175-181-183-052140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BLAINE BOONE
BUFFALO CHASE CLAY
CUSTER DAWSON DUNDY
FRANKLIN FRONTIER FURNAS
GARFIELD GOSPER GREELEY
HALL HAMILTON HARLAN
HAYES HITCHCOCK HOOKER
HOWARD KEARNEY KEITH
LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP
MCPHERSON MERRICK NANCE
NUCKOLLS PERKINS PHELPS
POLK RED WILLOW SHERMAN
THOMAS VALLEY WEBSTER
WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 232
VALID 051935Z - 052040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/05/07
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GLD...DDC...GID...LBF...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 232
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC009-023-039-051-053-063-065-089-101-105-109-123-135-137-141-
147-153-159-163-165-167-171-179-181-183-193-195-052040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON CHEYENNE DECATUR
ELLIS ELLSWORTH GOVE
GRAHAM JEWELL LANE
LINCOLN LOGAN MITCHELL
NESS NORTON OSBORNE
PHILLIPS RAWLINS RICE
ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL
SCOTT SHERIDAN SHERMAN
SMITH THOMAS TREGO
$$
NEC001-009-011-019-029-035-041-047-057-061-063-065-071-073-077-
079-081-083-085-087-091-093-099-101-111-113-115-117-121-125-129-
135-137-143-145-163-171-175-181-183-052040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BLAINE BOONE
BUFFALO CHASE CLAY
CUSTER DAWSON DUNDY
FRANKLIN FRONTIER FURNAS
GARFIELD GOSPER GREELEY
HALL HAMILTON HARLAN
HAYES HITCHCOCK HOOKER
HOWARD KEARNEY KEITH
LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP
MCPHERSON MERRICK NANCE
NUCKOLLS PERKINS PHELPS
POLK RED WILLOW SHERMAN
THOMAS VALLEY WEBSTER
WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 232
VALID 051755Z - 051840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/05/07
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GLD...DDC...GID...LBF...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 232
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC009-023-039-051-053-063-065-089-101-105-109-123-135-137-141-
147-153-159-163-165-167-171-179-181-183-193-195-051840-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON CHEYENNE DECATUR
ELLIS ELLSWORTH GOVE
GRAHAM JEWELL LANE
LINCOLN LOGAN MITCHELL
NESS NORTON OSBORNE
PHILLIPS RAWLINS RICE
ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL
SCOTT SHERIDAN SHERMAN
SMITH THOMAS TREGO
$$
NEC001-009-011-019-029-035-041-047-057-061-063-065-071-073-077-
079-081-083-085-087-091-093-099-101-111-113-115-117-121-125-129-
135-137-145-163-171-175-181-183-051840-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BLAINE BOONE
BUFFALO CHASE CLAY
CUSTER DAWSON DUNDY
FRANKLIN FRONTIER FURNAS
GARFIELD GOSPER GREELEY
HALL HAMILTON HARLAN
HAYES HITCHCOCK HOOKER
HOWARD KEARNEY KEITH
LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP
MCPHERSON MERRICK NANCE
NUCKOLLS PERKINS PHELPS
RED WILLOW SHERMAN THOMAS
VALLEY WEBSTER WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
High (>95%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
High (>95%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (90%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
High (80%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (90%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
High (80%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.