SPC AC 050600

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move
   eastward Monday afternoon through Monday night across parts of the
   southern/central Plains. Multiple strong/potentially long-track
   tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and severe/damaging winds all
   appear likely.

   ...Synopsis...
   A negatively tilted upper trough with embedded 50-70 kt mid-level
   speed maximum will eject northeastward across the northern/central
   Plains on Monday. At the surface, the primary low will consolidate
   over the northern High Plains of eastern MT into western ND/SD and
   vicinity, with a secondary surface low forecast to develop over the
   central High Plains by Monday evening. A rather moist low-level
   airmass, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 60s to low 70s,
   will spread northward across the southern/central Plains ahead of an
   eastward-mixing dryline and southeastward-moving cold front. A warm
   front should eventually reach eastward across parts of NE/IA. This
   warm front should be the northern limit of appreciable
   severe-thunderstorm potential through Monday night.

   ...Southern/Central Plains...
   Confidence has increased in a corridor of greater potential for
   strong tornadoes and very large hail, with multiple supercells
   likely to develop across south-central KS and western/central OK
   late Monday afternoon and continuing through much of the evening.
   Accordingly, a Moderate Risk has been introduced for this area.

   Daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass, coupled with steep
   mid-level lapse rates, will foster moderate to strong instability
   developing along/east of the dryline Monday afternoon. Peak
   pre-convective MLCAPE will likely reach 2500-4000 J/kg across much
   of central KS into western/central OK and northwest TX. Strong
   deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt will easily support supercells with
   initial thunderstorm development. Convective initiation appears
   likely by early Monday afternoon as ascent with the lead shortwave
   trough overspreads NE/KS. Very large hail will be a threat
   initially, but most guidance suggests a fairly quick transition to a
   more linear mode with time Monday afternoon/evening, especially as
   the cold front overtakes the dryline. An increasing threat for
   damaging winds and embedded tornadic circulations will likely occur
   as this mode transition occurs, in tandem with strengthening
   boundary-layer shear associated with a strengthening southerly
   low-level jet. This damaging-wind/tornado threat may continue into
   the overnight hours into parts of IA/MO, and the Slight Risk has
   been expanded eastward to account for this potential.

   Farther south across western OK and south-central KS, more modest
   large-scale ascent and related mid-level height falls associated
   with a more westerly mid/upper-level jet will eventually overspread
   the dryline and warm sector by late Monday afternoon. Although
   overall convective coverage will likely be lower compared to
   locations farther north, there should be a better chance for
   supercell structures to be maintained, as deep-layer shear vectors
   appear more orthogonal to the initiating boundary (dryline). A
   southerly low-level jet should strengthen to around 40-45 kt through
   early Monday evening across this area, greatly enhancing
   corresponding low-level shear and effective SRH. The best chance for
   strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and giant hail (3-4 inches)
   should exist with any supercells that can persist Monday evening in
   a very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space.
   Similar to locations farther north in KS/NE, upscale growth should
   eventually occur across central/eastern OK. A threat for damaging
   winds and tornadoes (some potentially strong) should continue Monday
   night into early Tuesday with eastward extent across the southern
   Plains given a sufficiently unstable and strongly sheared
   environment.

   ..Gleason.. 05/05/2024

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