SPC AC 071958

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0258 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

   Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST/FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
   PLAINS...AND EASTERN COLORADO/FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few tornadoes will be possible along the middle to upper Texas
   Coast into southwest Louisiana as Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches
   the coast and makes landfall later tonight. Scattered severe
   thunderstorms are also expected across eastern Colorado, northeast
   New Mexico, and parts of the southern Plains.

   ...20Z Update...
   The Marginal and Slight Risks have been expanded southwestward
   across western portions of the TX South Plains, where cumulus is
   increasing this afternoon, and somewhat favorable instability and
   deep-layer shear are already in place. Uncertainty remains rather
   high regarding the potential for redevelopment across parts of
   Oklahoma later this afternoon into the evening, in the wake of
   substantial antecedent convection and outflow. However, relatively
   strong heating is underway across parts of southwest/south-central
   OK, and a few strong to severe storms remain possible by early
   evening. No changes have been made to the Oklahoma portion of the
   Slight Risk. 

   No changes have been made to the other Slight Risks. Scattered
   strong to severe storms are still expected from the CO Front Range
   into eastern CO/northeast NM. Also, for parts of the middle/upper TX
   Coast into far southwest LA, the tornado threat is expected to
   increase late tonight into early Monday morning, as Tropical Cyclone
   Beryl approaches the coast. See the previous discussion below for
   more details regarding these areas.

   ..Dean.. 07/07/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024/

   ...Middle to Upper Texas Coast...
   Tropical Cyclone Beryl and its outer envelope of strong low-level
   flow, will continue to approach the Texas coast through much of the
   period before making landfall tonight. Reference NHC for the latest
   forecast details. Coincident with the expected strengthening of
   lower tropospheric flow, low-level shear (i.e., enlarging
   hodographs) will increase across the middle to upper Texas Coast
   into southwest Louisiana through tonight, with embedded supercells
   within the convective bands and transient rotating updrafts
   potentially posing an isolated risk for tornadoes, especially into
   tonight.

   ...Eastern Colorado/Front Range and far northeast New Mexico...
   Low stratus persists at midday across east-central/southeast
   Colorado toward the Raton Mesa vicinity, but more aggressive
   clearing is occurring across northern Colorado. A belt of cyclonic
   flow aloft will continue to overspread the region with some cooling
   aloft, while low-level moisture and upslope flow both increase
   through late today. Storms should develop near the foothills/I-25
   later this afternoon and evening, likely with a bit
   later-than-typical time frame for strong/severe thunderstorm
   development. Moderate instability and strong shear will support
   supercells capable of large hail, with some stronger wind gusts also
   a possibility. Potentially severe storms may continue especially
   across southeast Colorado/northeast New Mexico much of the night.

   ...Southern Plains including Oklahoma and North Texas/Panhandle...
   A semi-organized cluster of storms has evolved across
   east-central/south-central Oklahoma and may persist eastward early
   this afternoon with a localized severe risk. Trailing outflow and a
   residual surface cold pool are considerable factors in its wake,
   although modification is likely into the afternoon. Storms may
   redevelop as this occurs, potentially including parts of the Texas
   Panhandle/Texas south Plains into western/southern Oklahoma and the
   Red River vicinity, with isolated severe storms possible later this
   afternoon through early evening.

   ...Iowa/northern Missouri/western Illinois to northern Wisconsin...
   Surface pattern will remain relatively weak and ill-defined, but at
   least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected particularly
   across northern Missouri into Iowa and western Wisconsin near a weak
   surface wave/boundary. Even with some cirrus and some residual early
   day showers, moderate destabilization should occur across the
   region, with development and intensification of storm clusters this
   afternoon in the presence of 20-30 kt effective shear. Isolated
   instances of wind damage is the most probable hazard, but some hail
   could also occur. Some strong storms could occur as far north as
   Wisconsin and perhaps the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan, but
   the overall potential for organized severe storms should remain
   limited.

   ...Southern Appalachians...
   Short-term guidance substantiates the likelihood of scattered
   thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some potential for
   storms to cluster by late afternoon across upstate parts of the
   Carolinas and far northeast Georgia. Mid-level lapse rates will be
   weak with relatively tall/skinny CAPE, but some localized damaging
   downbursts may occur.

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