Mesoscale Discussion 0107
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0330 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024

   Areas affected...Northern FL...Southern GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 042130Z - 042330Z

   CORRECTED FOR MISSPELLING IN GRAPHIC

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Potential for isolated damaging gusts and brief tornadoes
   will continue for the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...21Z surface analysis places a triple point low near ABY
   in southwest GA. A warm front extends east-southeastward from this
   low across southern GA, while a surface trough extends southeastward
   through central portions of northern FL into the central FL
   Peninsula. The airmass downstream of the surface trough has
   destabilized amid filtered daytime heating and cold temperatures
   aloft (i.e. around -20 deg C at 500-mb). Low-topped convection is
   developing along the surface trough, and then moving
   north-northeasterly with the mean wind into more of
   north-central/northeast FL. Temperature profiles are suitable for
   surface-based storms, although the overall magnitude of the buoyancy
   is mitigated by relatively modest low-level moisture. General
   expectation is for a continuation of low-topped thunderstorms, with
   occasional supercells capable of damaging gusts and/or hail. Given
   the veering low-level wind profiles, there is also a low-probability
   chance for a tornado or two.

   Farther northwest close to the low (i.e southwest GA), stronger
   southeasterly low to mid-level flow result in a more northwestward
   storm motion, taking storms that develop into more hostile air.
   However, this storm motion also allows for more interaction with the
   warm front (and associated low-level vorticity), which appears to be
   contributing to brief strengthening of low-level rotation and
   tornadogenesis. Narrowing of the warm sector in this region should
   lead to diminishing severe potential over the next few hours. Until
   then, brief tornadoes remain possible.

   ..Mosier/Goss.. 02/04/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30918389 31288424 31318269 30448118 29188155 29028227
               30368308 30918389