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Mesoscale Discussion 620 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0620
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0727 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024
Areas affected...western North Texas into adjacent southwestern
Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 040027Z - 040230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Ongoing convection across North Texas -- from west of
Childress to the Wichita Falls/Jacksboro/Mineral Wells vicinity --
may expand in coverage/intensity over the next couple of hours. New
WW issuance could become necessary, if convection can organize
further.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of northeastward-moving storms west of
Childress will soon exit Tornado Watch 178. Some model signal is
evident that the storms could persist -- and even grow upscale a bit
-- over the next couple of hours. The currently observed
environment -- mixed-layer CAPE near or exceeding 3000 J/kg -- would
certainly support this potential. While shear remains somewhat
modest, veering winds with height are providing ample shear for
mid-level updraft rotation. Additionally, other storms from near
Wichita Falls south to near Mineral Wells -- within generally the
same background environment -- have also maintained intensity.
We will continue to monitor convective evolution in the short term.
Signs of increased coverage or upscale growth of this convection
could warrant WW consideration.
..Goss/Guyer.. 05/04/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34120118 34810004 35129893 34949794 34469706 33629674
32589790 32609850 34120118
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