Mesoscale Discussion 0588
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0110 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024

   Areas affected...West Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 011810Z - 011915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm development is
   expected across portions of west Texas within the next hour. Large
   hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts near 70 to 80 mph
   are possible. A WW is likely in the next hour.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows increasing deepening
   moist convection over the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau. A
   dryline extends north to south on the western fringe of this current
   cumulus, with dew points in the mid to upper 60s east of it. A mid
   level shortwave trough evident in water vapor imagery is just
   entering Chihuahua Mexico and will enter west TX around 19-20Z.
   Initial storms may remain somewhat unorganized given low end
   effective shear. However, as the shortwave trough approaches from
   the west increasing large scale ascent and stronger flow will
   overspread the region, supporting more widespread coverage and
   organized updrafts. In addition, latest surface obs/mesoanalysis
   indicate MLCAPE of 3000 J/kg will continue to increase through the
   late afternoon. Very steep mid level lapse rates (> 8 C) within the
   hail growth zone will support very large hail, especially within
   discrete supercells. Damaging winds and a tornado or two will also
   be possible. A convective watch is likely in the next hour.

   ..Barnes/Lyons/Hart.. 05/01/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29960154 29900198 29920235 29820248 29690271 29410287
               29240290 29120316 29280365 29400415 29810423 30330392
               30500406 30690430 30890400 31160335 31680297 32250275
               32920228 33000174 32970095 32780075 32340055 32050053
               31740058 31410066 30990082 30460100 30320107 30240118
               30060137 29990137 29960154