Mesoscale Discussion 0577
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0324 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

   Areas affected...western Oklahoma into northwestern Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 302024Z - 302300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is
   possible late this afternoon and evening.  While stronger cells may
   pose a risk for severe hail, they may not be particularly
   long-lived.  While the need for a severe weather watch is not
   currently anticipated, trends will continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Deepening convection, including at least attempts at
   thunderstorm initiation, is underway near the dryline across western
   Oklahoma into northwestern Texas.  However, mid/upper support for
   thunderstorm development appears likely to remain weak to
   negligible, while inhibition associated with warming elevated
   mixed-layer air spreading east of the southern Rockies continues to
   increase.  With the dryline also forecast to tend to slowly retreat
   westward/northwestward into this evening, the potential for
   sustained thunderstorm development appears generally low, but an
   isolated storm or two could briefly develop and intensify.  In an
   environment conditionally supportive of supercells, large hail
   appears the primary potential severe hazard before the storms
   dissipate.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/30/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36779887 37259794 36909710 35619821 34599892 33669966
               33240031 33580063 34600048 35170017 36779887