Mesoscale Discussion 0539
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1057 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

   Areas affected...Northwest TX...western/northern OK...and southeast
   KS

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 144...

   Valid 271557Z - 271730Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 144 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe threat will further increase into the afternoon
   from parts of northwest Texas into southeast Kansas, including
   potential for a couple strong tornadic supercells. A broader tornado
   and/or multiple PDS/non-PDS tornado watches will be needed prior to
   the 18Z expiration of WW 144.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis placed the nearly stationary dryline
   across the eastern TX Panhandle through northwest TX. The deepest
   convection is ahead of the dryline in west-central to north-central
   OK, which includes a supercell in cluster and a downstream discrete
   supercell. Surface warming has been more pronounced in parts of
   central OK, generally along and east of the I-35 corridor. The
   leading discrete supercell should have relatively uninterrupted
   inflow as it impinges on this relatively max in boundary-layer
   warming. Amid a 45-kt southerly low-level jet per the TLX VWP data,
   potential will exist for cyclic tornadoes that may be strong. Strong
   mid-level rotation has also been noted with the supercell in cluster
   now centered in Dewey County, OK, and this storm should pose a
   continued threat for all hazards. 

   Additional storms should regenerate along the dryline farther south
   into northwest TX through the afternoon given minimal MLCIN. With
   weaker forcing for ascent relative to farther north, there is some
   uncertainty in how quickly this activity will become severe. But the
   overall environment will favor discrete supercell development,
   especially as the boundary layer further warms.

   ..Grams.. 04/27/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   33330075 34760019 36239913 37569737 37849665 37869596
               37679565 36989571 36459599 35939681 35109788 33589913
               33140025 33330075