Mesoscale Discussion 0514
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0347 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

   Areas affected...southwest Kansas into the central Texas Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 252047Z - 252315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A narrow zone of isolated storm potential exists from
   southwest Kansas into the central Texas Panhandle, with conditional
   supercell threat.

   DISCUSSION...Clouds hampered heating for much of the day from the
   South Plains into most of the TX Panhandle, but boundary layer
   mixing continues with decreasing clouds. High-based cumulus have
   formed within the warmer, deeply mixed air mass just west of the
   dryline, with signs of increasing warm sector cumulus as well.

   Special midday soundings from AMA and DDC show steep lapse rates
   aloft and strong mid and high level winds. While dewpoints have
   dropped in some areas such as western KS, GPS water vapor sensors
   indicate greater overall moisture content roughly from AMA
   southeastward toward CDS.

   Given continued cloud erosion, mixing along the dryline, and an
   increasing low-level jet into the evening, isolated severe storms
   cannot be ruled out within this narrow north-south zone.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 04/25/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   33910188 34670189 35470209 35970215 36730202 37480168
               38410150 38450086 37940070 36300094 34960091 34160096
               33810139 33910188