Mesoscale Discussion 0484
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0339 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

   Areas affected...northeast Louisiana and central Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 182039Z - 182215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts
   has increased across northeast Louisiana and central Mississippi.

   DISCUSSION...A persistent cluster of thunderstorms in the ArkLaMiss
   has shown minimal organization this afternoon. However, within the
   last 30 minutes, some stronger cores have developed and are starting
   to show better structure from the KDGX WSR-88D. Temperatures south
   of this activity have warmed into the upper 70s to low 80s with
   dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. This has yielded 1500 to 2000
   J/kg MLCAPE with SPC mesoanalysis indicating MLCINH has recently
   eroded. Therefore, these storms may be becoming surface based. If
   so, this would increase the threat for isolated large hail and
   damaging wind gusts this afternoon, and allow the threat to persist
   into the late afternoon and early evening.

   ..Bentley/Mosier.. 04/18/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33538863 33108838 32548842 32178894 32029116 32109208
               32419233 32989214 33249124 33538863