Mesoscale Discussion 0475
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0246 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

   Areas affected...central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 171946Z - 172115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated supercells are possible in central Texas this
   afternoon/evening.

   DISCUSSION...The day-cloud RGB band from GOES-16 shows agitated
   cumulus through the upper clouds along a moisture boundary moving
   north through central Texas. SPC mesoanalysis shows some CIN in the
   vicinity, but with additional heating/moistening, expect a mostly
   uncapped environment within the next 1 to 2 hours. Forcing in the
   region is weak, but convergence along this boundary (evident in
   moisture convergence on SPC mesoanalysis) may be sufficient to break
   the cap. If any storms develop, the mode will be supercellular given
   55 knot of effective shear and 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Long, straight
   hodographs will support splitting supercells. Given the lack of
   greater forcing, expect the threat to remain isolated to only one or
   two storms with the threat waning near sunset as the boundary layer
   cools.

   ..Bentley.. 04/17/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30150004 30480011 30870009 31259978 31869893 32099749
               31419712 30469750 29999816 30109920 30150004