Mesoscale Discussion 0462
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0316 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

   Areas affected...central and eastern Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 162016Z - 162145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail is possible this afternoon/evening.

   DISCUSSION...A plume of rich low-level moisture has advected across
   eastern Texas, Louisiana and into southern Arkansas. Weak isentropic
   ascent has been sufficient for storm development on the leading edge
   of this moist plume. Effective shear of 50 to 55 knots and will be
   proficient for organized storms, including supercells. However, warm
   mid-level temperatures and weak ascent will be the primary limiting
   factor to a greater threat. Therefore, a few stronger storms may
   develop with a threat for large hail, but this threat is expected to
   remain too isolated to warrant a watch.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 04/16/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33229391 33729381 34459361 35109322 35589276 36179209
               36469071 36329008 35878979 34549040 33619121 33179180
               32969233 32909373 33229391