Mesoscale Discussion 0429
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1045 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

   Areas affected...northeastern New York into Vermont

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 121545Z - 121815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out this
   afternoon from northeastern New York into Vermont. A brief/weak
   tornado or locally strong gusts will be possible.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows areas of clearing, which is
   allowing for relatively warm conditions to develop. Surface
   temperatures are already in the upper 60s F, which is warmer than
   several models indicate. This has led to the development of several
   hundred J/kg SBCAPE.

   Area VWPs show 0-1 SRH over 200 m2/s2, which is quite supportive of
   rotation within storms. This, along with a relatively high RH
   boundary layer, and lift ahead of the front/surface trough, suggest
   an uptick in at least low-topped thunderstorm coverage may occur.
   Whether individual cells form, or north-south line segments, storms
   may acquire sufficient low-level rotation for a brief tornado risk,
   within a small zone where heating is most prominent.

   ..Jewell/Goss.. 04/12/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...

   LAT...LON   45097269 44307266 43717273 43307281 42947306 42647368
               42677394 42947410 43607406 44207403 44857413 45047420
               45097269