Mesoscale Discussion 0351
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0228 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of far southern IL into western/northern
   KY...southern IN...and southwestern OH

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 75...76...

   Valid 021928Z - 022100Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 75, 76 continues.

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving across western Kentucky and southern
   Indiana should continue to pose some severe risk this afternoon.
   Downstream watch issuance will eventually be needed. Tornadoes,
   large hail, and damaging winds all appear possible. A strong tornado
   may also occur with any supercell that can be sustained.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has generally struggled to intensify this
   afternoon in far southern IL/western KY along a pre-frontal
   trough/wind shift line. Still, the airmass downstream is attempting
   to destabilize in the wake of earlier convection across parts of
   northern KY and southern IN. Visible satellite imagery shows some
   clearing across this area, with surface temperatures gradually
   warming into the 70s in the vicinity of the Ohio River. The
   low-level airmass is also slowly moistening as the outflow boundary
   from morning thunderstorms becomes less well defined, with surface
   dewpoints rising into the mid to upper 60s. Enhanced deep-layer
   shear of 50-60 kt will support supercells with associated hail
   threat, if any can develop ahead of the ongoing cluster. Otherwise,
   favorable low-level shear, with effective SRH around 250-300 m2/s2,
   will also foster a tornado risk assuming robust thunderstorms can be
   sustained. A strong tornado appears possible given the strength of
   the low-level flow/shear shown in recent VWPs from KLVX. Damaging
   winds remain a possibility with any small clusters. Given current
   observational trends and gradual destabilization occurring
   downstream of the ongoing activity, a downstream Tornado Watch into
   parts of central KY, southern IN, and southwestern OH will likely be
   needed before the scheduled 20Z expiration of WW 75.

   ..Gleason.. 04/02/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

   LAT...LON   38058774 38998711 39328656 39608544 39638422 39128378
               38558394 37968431 37498472 36918625 36858829 37358861
               38058774