Mesoscale Discussion 0282
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0121 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

   Areas affected...far southern FL toward the Keys

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 221821Z - 222045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms from far southern Florida toward the Keys may
   remain capable of producing waterspouts, with an eventual
   possibility of a brief tornado.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have increased in coverage near an east-west
   oriented boundary situation over far southern FL. North of this
   boundary, surface winds remain out of the east/northeast, and
   through a relatively deep layer. VWPs near Miami show around 2 km
   depth of east to southeasterly winds. Farther south toward Key West,
   winds have veered to southerly, and this area is also within the
   instability plume with MLCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg. 

   Although instability is less over land, enhanced vertical vorticity
   exists along the boundary, and the gradual increase in theta-e, as
   well as increasing flow aloft, could yield a more favorable
   environment for a brief tornado with time.

   VWPs and objective analysis generally indicate 0-1 SRH below 100
   m2/s2, however, these values appear to be slowly increasing. In
   addition, as the cluster of storms persists, further shear
   enhancement could occur due to convectively induced pressure falls.

   At this time, a watch does not appear necessary due to the low-end
   nature of the threat as well as minimal land area.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 03/22/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

   LAT...LON   25118035 24948056 24888137 24938159 25068164 25308144
               25498111 25538080 25498022 25358019 25118035