Mesoscale Discussion 0193
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0747 PM CST Tue Mar 05 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of the western Florida Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 060147Z - 060345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts and possibly a brief/weak tornado
   could accompany an approaching mesoscale convective system from the
   west in the next hour or so. A watch is not currently expected.

   DISCUSSION...A loosely organized quasi-linear convective system is
   tracking eastward at around 30-35 kt across the eastern Gulf of
   Mexico, and is approximately 35-40 miles west of Tampa Bay FL. While
   the latest IR satellite trends suggest a gradual weakening of this
   system as it encounters cooler sea-surface temperatures and weaker
   buoyancy offshore of the western FL Peninsula, around 40 kt of
   midlevel westerly flow perpendicular to the established cold pool
   should support some maintenance as it approaches the coast.
   Regardless, antecedent heating/destabilization of a relatively moist
   airmass (upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints) over the peninsula could
   support locally damaging gusts as it moves ashore in the next hour
   or so, though the onset of nocturnal cooling could offset this to an
   extent. In addition, small clockwise-curved hodographs could support
   a brief/weak tornado along the immediate coastal areas, though the
   stronger low-level flow/shear is largely displaced to the north,
   where earlier convection/cloud coverage limited destabilization. 

   Current thinking is that the overall severe-threat will remain too
   localized/marginal for a watch consideration.

   ..Weinman/Guyer.. 03/06/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   25938194 26848250 27678287 28198289 28898276 29008255
               29008227 28968203 28778190 28088181 27228164 26448135
               25988126 25798153 25938194