Mesoscale Discussion 0096
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0644 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024

   Areas affected...Carolina Piedmont Region

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 280044Z - 280245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong storms, with some low risk for a brief
   tornado or wind gust, will be noted across the Carolina Piedmont
   region this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Midlevel speed max is rotating through the base of the
   MS Valley trough and should translate across the southern
   Appalachians into the Piedmont region later tonight. In response to
   this feature, LLJ will increase markedly across SC into western VA
   by 06z which should encourage a slow northward advance of the warm
   front across this region. Latest diagnostic data suggests the
   boundary is currently draped from near FAY-CAE-Edgefield County SC.
   Continued recovery is expected across NC as the LLJ strengthens over
   the next few hours. Over the last few hours, several weak supercells
   have developed within the warm advection zone. This activity should
   remain focused across the Carolina Piedmont, especially along/just
   north of the aforementioned warm front. Any supercells that mature
   near the boundary could generate locally strong winds, and perhaps a
   brief tornado. However, current trends do not suggest the overall
   severe threat will warrant a watch. Will continue to monitor this
   region.

   ..Darrow/Thompson.. 01/28/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   34198226 34718093 35408006 34967930 34008045 33578200
               34198226