Mesoscale Discussion 0005
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0951 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of central/south FL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 061551Z - 061715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Some threat for a couple tornadoes and locally damaging
   wind may develop from late morning into early afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...At 1545 UTC, organized convection is approaching parts
   of the central/southern FL Gulf Coast from the Gulf of Mexico.
   Morning observed soundings from KTBW and KMFL depicted only very
   weak buoyancy, and substantial cloudiness and precipitation in
   advance of the stronger storms will continue to limit
   destabilization across much of the peninsula. However, some modest
   heating/destabilization will be possible to the south of the more
   extensive precipitation, where temperatures are currently rising
   into the mid 70s F. 

   Wind profiles (as noted on the TBW sounding and preconvective VWPs
   from KTBW) remain quite favorable for organized convection, with
   enlarged low-level hodographs (0-1 km SRH of 200-400 m2/s2)
   supporting a conditional tornado threat if any supercells and/or
   line-embedded mesovortices can be sustained inland later this
   morning into the early afternoon. 

   Later this afternoon, low-level flow will begin to veer and weaken
   as the primary midlevel shortwave trough and surface low move
   quickly northeastward away from the region. However, there may be a
   period of time late this morning into the early afternoon where
   organized convection will pose a threat of a couple tornadoes and
   locally damaging wind. Watch issuance is possible depending on
   short-term trends regarding destabilization and storm organization.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 01/06/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   27388248 27838228 27728099 27128048 26418052 26028075
               25928095 25878135 26048197 26338224 26478236 26618254
               26938255 27388248