Mesoscale Discussion 0004
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0653 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024

   Areas affected...west coast of FL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 061253Z - 061530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A low risk for a localized damaging thunderstorm gust
   and/or brief tornado will seemingly focus near the west coast of the
   FL Peninsula through 11am EST.

   DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery early this morning shows a
   mid-level shortwave trough over AL/GA and the FL Panhandle pivoting
   northeast through the base of a larger-scale trough.  A pre-frontal
   band of showers/thunderstorms extends from 175 mi west-southwest of
   Sarasota northeastward to 20 mi west-northwest of Ocala as of 745am
   EST.  Surface observations along the west coast ahead of the storm
   activity indicate dewpoints generally in the 66-69 deg F range. 
   Forecast soundings show a paucity of buoyancy farther north where
   dewpoints are lower (i.e., mid 60s) but weak buoyancy from Pasco
   County (100-200 J/kg MLCAPE; supported by the 12 UTC Tampa raob with
   100 J/kg MLCAPE) southward to Charlotte Harbor (250-500 J/kg
   MLCAPE).  The KTBW VAD shows around 550 m2/s2 0-1km SRH when
   inputting observed storm motion.  Given the low CAPE/high shear
   setup, it seems plausible some risk for localized damaging gusts
   and/or a brief tornado will overspread the beaches and perhaps a row
   of counties inland during the morning hours.  This thunderstorm
   threat will shift southward along the coast during the morning with
   the areas from Tampa Bay and areas north likely having a diminished
   threat by mid-late morning and it shifting towards Charlotte Harbor
   towards late morning.

   ..Smith/Guyer.. 01/06/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   29168274 29358251 29228223 28508233 27948243 27668236
               26778195 26488198 26438211 26508233 27348282 27988299
               28618280 28928283 29168274