Mesoscale Discussion 2086
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 PM CST Thu Dec 30 2021

   Areas affected...portions of central into southern Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 301900Z - 302100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop and continue for
   at least a few more hours. Damaging gusts are the main threat,
   though a tornado cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance farther south of
   the main thunderstorm band in central Alabama/Georgia is unlikely
   given the sparse nature of the severe threat, though convective
   trends will continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been slowly increasing in number and
   intensity within a modest confluence band across southern into
   central Georgia. KJGX radar shows that some of these storms recently
   acquired supercell structure. These storms are developing in a
   weakly forced environment, and are mainly fueled by deep low-level
   moisture contributing to 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (per 18Z
   mesoanalysis). The presence of 40+ kts effective bulk shear will
   promote continued organization with the more persistent updrafts.
   However, some of the latest JGX VWPs depict short, modestly curved
   hodographs. When taking into account the overall weak deep-layer
   ascent, the weaker and veered low-level flow will limit the severe
   threat to a degree, though damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado
   could still occur. Nonetheless, the isolated nature of the severe
   threat suggests that a WW issuance is unlikely.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/30/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30948493 31668454 32268340 32308238 32248146 32078118
               31918119 31548181 31188279 30878376 30748470 30948493