Mesoscale Discussion 1873
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0213 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

   Areas affected...Eastern NY...Much of VT...Far Western MA...Far
   Western CT

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 529...

   Valid 161913Z - 162030Z

   CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION IN AREAS AFFECTED

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 529
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts and maybe a brief tornado
   will continue across the region for the next hour or two.

   DISCUSSION...Shallow convective line extending from the northernmost
   NY/VT border to the NY Hudson Valley continues to move
   east-northeastward at about 30-35 kt. Only modest changes in the
   thermodynamic environment preceding the line have occurred over the
   past hour or so, with much of the area still characterized by
   temperatures in the mid/upper 70s and dewpoints in the low/mid 60s.
   A pocket of somewhat higher low-level moisture exists across far
   northern VT, where mesoanalysis estimated MLCAPE is around 500 J/kg.
   Additionally, the wind profile across the region remains supportive
   of low-level rotation, particularly across northern VT. Recent VAD
   from CXX sampled over 350 m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
   and over 500 m2/s2 of 0-3 km storm-relative helicity. These
   conditions suggest the threat for damaging wind gusts and maybe even
   a brief tornado will continue for the next hour or two before
   limited instability likely leads to a diminished threat across New
   England.

   ..Mosier.. 10/16/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...

   LAT...LON   42127506 43137423 43787377 44507356 44797362 44997319
               44977252 44297228 42247291 41597341 41437527 42127506