Mesoscale Discussion 1859
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0346 PM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021

   Areas affected...northern Arkansas into southeast Missouri and
   southern Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 142046Z - 142245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong storms are possible from northern Arkansas
   into southeast Missouri/southern Illinois with gusty winds the most
   likely threat.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have slowly increased over northern AR near a
   diffuse front, with modest instability along the ahead of the
   boundary. This front is situated roughly parallel to the winds
   aloft, suggesting storms may track along it over the next several
   hours.

   Effective SRH is generally weak, but deep-layer shear is favorable
   at 35-40 kt to sustain a few longer-lived storms given the moist
   environment. Weak cyclonic shear has been noted recently on the AR
   activity, and while tornadoes are not expected, could aid gusty wind
   potential.

   ..Jewell/Dial.. 10/14/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37128895 36558922 36058990 35849049 35499135 35279210
               35249284 35399301 35569304 35829296 36189263 37399082
               37679023 37738988 37658945 37398915 37128895