Mesoscale Discussion 1858
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0322 AM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of central/coastal TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 140822Z - 141045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe risk may persist for a couple of hours
   early this morning. Watch issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...A supercell on the southern flank of a large area of
   precipitation has shown recent signs of low-level rotation. Although
   a southerly low-level jet across central/coastal TX remains fairly
   modest (20-25 kt), there is some enhancement to flow in the 0-1-km
   layer. Around 200 m2/s2 of 0-1-km SRH is present per the KCRP VWP,
   which is enough for modest storm organization and the low-level
   rotation which has been observed. Strong/gusty winds and perhaps a
   brief tornado may occur in the short term with the ongoing
   supercell. Less clear is the prospect for continued storm
   organization early this morning. A weak impulse embedded within the
   large-scale upper trough encompassing much of the western and
   central CONUS should slowly depart this region as it overspreads the
   ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley. The southerly low-level jet is also
   forecast to gradually diminish through the morning as well. Given
   the lack of stronger large-scale forcing and a marginal
   thermodynamic environment, the potential for sustained/organized
   severe storms appears relatively low. Accordingly, watch issuance is
   not expected early this morning.

   ..Gleason/Edwards.. 10/14/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29609796 29559733 29879643 29629618 29349628 29099685
               28849775 29199820 29609796