Mesoscale Discussion 1830
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0500 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of southwestern MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 111000Z - 111200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A threat for a brief tornado and isolated strong/gusty
   winds may continue for a couple more hours early this morning. Watch
   issuance is unlikely at this time.

   DISCUSSION...A low-topped line of convection has recently moved into
   parts of southwestern MO. A strong, 50+ kt low-level jet is present
   over this region. This low-level jet and a pronounced southwesterly
   mid-level jet associated with a shortwave trough ejecting from the
   southern Plains across the Ozarks are supporting strong low-level
   and deep-layer shear. One of the cells embedded within the
   low-topped line recently acquired low-level rotation, and a
   corresponding CC minimum in dual pol radar data from KSGF. Although
   the low-level shear remains rather favorable for continued storm
   organization in the short term across southwestern MO, the
   thermodynamic environment is much more marginal. A leading wave of
   convection has already moved across this region, with surface
   temperatures generally in the upper 60s. Weak boundary-layer
   instability should continue to limit updraft intensities,
   particularly as these storms move eastward and away from a narrow,
   maximized corridor of this instability characterized by MLCAPE
   around 500 J/kg. While a brief tornado and strong/gusty winds may
   continue to be a threat for the next couple of hours, the overall
   severe threat will probably remain too isolated to justify new watch
   issuance early this morning.

   ..Gleason/Edwards.. 10/11/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   37629426 37919437 38269393 38269310 37769260 37089279
               36539306 36539377 36829380 37309403 37629426