Mesoscale Discussion 1829
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0126 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of northwestern AR and southwestern MO

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 519...

   Valid 110626Z - 110730Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 519 continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may continue across mainly
   southwestern Missouri in the short term, but downstream watch
   issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...A line of storms that has recently moved from eastern
   OK into western AR and southwestern MO has generally weakened as it
   encounters a less unstable airmass. One exception has been with a
   small segment across southwestern MO, where a low-level circulation
   with corresponding CC minimum has been detected by the KSGF radar.
   Clearly the low-level shear remains favorable for a brief embedded
   tornado or two with this activity. But, the thermodynamic
   environment downstream, with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg, appears only
   marginally conducive for sustained severe convection. Tornado Watch
   519 is currently scheduled to expire at 07Z (2 AM CDT). While a
   small extension in time and area to WW 519 is possible across a
   small part of southwestern MO downstream of the ongoing storms, the
   overall severe threat is not expected to be great enough beyond the
   next 1-2 hours to justify new downstream watch issuance.

   ..Gleason.. 10/11/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35059438 35639442 36369451 37359453 37649411 37569337
               37139319 36119342 35409380 35059438