Mesoscale Discussion 1802
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0745 PM CDT Tue Oct 05 2021

   Areas affected...Far eastern Arizona and far western New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 060045Z - 060215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to weaken through the evening into the
   early overnight. No downstream watch is expected.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered severe wind reports have continued to come in
   from the cluster of storms currently across eastern Arizona.
   Embedded supercells have been responsible for most of these severe
   wind gusts. These storms are moving to the eastern extent of the
   instability, and loss of daytime heating should continue to
   stabilize the airmass ahead of these storms. Therefore, weakening is
   expected. However, slightly longer persistence is possible with the
   embedded supercells where internal dynamic pressure perturbations
   are able to overcome increasing inhibition. However, the isolated
   and low-end threat from this activity should limit any need for a
   downstream watch.

   ..Bentley/Thompson.. 10/06/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...

   LAT...LON   35491007 35520925 34180824 32830839 32690908 32660948
               33991008 34601032 35491007