Mesoscale Discussion 1801
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0553 PM CDT Tue Oct 05 2021

   Areas affected...Central and southeast Arizona and far southwest New
   Mexico

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512...

   Valid 052253Z - 060030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues through the evening.

   DISCUSSION...The initial arcing line of storms with embedded
   supercells has mostly moved north of the best instability and thus
   storm intensity has lessened. Scattered measured severe wind gusts
   have occurred  from earlier storm activity. Farther south, greater
   instability remains with MLCAPE around 1000 to 1500 J/kg per SPC
   mesoanalysis with effective shear around 35 to 40 knots. Therefore,
   organized storms, including supercells remain possible through the
   evening. Severe wind gusts remain the primary threat, but isolated
   large hail or a brief tornado may also occur.

   ..Bentley/Thompson.. 10/05/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   34381240 35041095 34880998 33810892 32060813 31670814
               31260817 31281109 31801278 32011344 32461335 34231341
               34381240