Mesoscale Discussion 1749
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0630 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

   Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Colorado

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499...

   Valid 142330Z - 150100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The primary potential severe hazard may transition to
   strong surface gusts with a developing cluster of storms as it
   spreads across and south-southeast of the La Junta vicinity through
   7-8 PM MDT.

   DISCUSSION...Earlier isolated supercell development initiating near
   and southeast of Colorado Springs has been followed by additional
   convective development and upscale growth, aided by moist upslope
   flow across the sloping terrain north of the Arkansas River into the
   vicinity of the Palmer Divide.  Although mixed-layer CAPE appears
   generally modest to weak, shear beneath moderate west-northwesterly
   mid-level flow, coupled with steep low-level lapse rates, appears
   sufficient to contribute to further convective organization.  This
   may be accompanied by increasing potential to produce strong surface
   gusts as the convective system propagates across and south-southeast
   of the La Junta vicinity through 7-8 PM MDT.

   ..Kerr.. 09/14/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PUB...

   LAT...LON   38370306 37880259 37400303 37650361 38170380 38170344
               38370306