Mesoscale Discussion 1748
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0504 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

   Areas affected...Eastern Michigan...northern Indiana...and far
   northwest Ohio

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498...

   Valid 142204Z - 142330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and damaging-wind threat will
   continue into the evening.

   DISCUSSION...Storm coverage has been somewhat sparse ahead of the
   cold front so far with only occasional stronger cores. This is
   probably a result of weak forcing from a weak confluence zone with
   the upper forcing farther north in Canada and the surface front
   farther west. However, the environment still remains quite favorable
   ahead of these storms with MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg per SPC
   mesoanalysis. In addition, the KDTX VWP shows flow in excess of 40
   knots below 1km. Therefore, damaging winds will remain a threat with
   any stronger storms which can bring some of this stronger flow to
   the surface. The best damaging-wind threat may materialize from the
   storm cluster developing in Kalamazoo, Calhoun, St. Joseph, and
   Branch counties in southern Michigan given current convective trends
   and a favorable downstream environment.

   ..Bentley.. 09/14/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

   LAT...LON   40558723 41418646 42438522 42988449 43528350 43818249
               43398180 42338251 40448509 40558723