Mesoscale Discussion 1698
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1240 PM CDT Mon Sep 06 2021

   Areas affected...Northern New Hampshire...central/northern Maine

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 061740Z - 061945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storm coverage across parts of New Hampshire and
   central/northern Maine will increase this afternoon. Isolated
   damaging winds and small hail are possible. Lack of greater
   destabilization will limit coverage of intense storms. No watch is
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...Weak convection has continued to occur within a
   pre-frontal trough in central/northern Maine. As the shortwave
   progresses to the northeast this afternoon, some combination of
   deepening convection within the surface trough and along the
   advancing cold front will lead to an increase of thunderstorm
   coverage in northern New England. Cold temperatures aloft,
   particularly with northward extent, should support a few marginally
   intense updrafts capable of isolated damaging wind and small hail.
   Greater surface heating in central and northern Maine increases the
   potential for stronger convective winds to reach the surface.
   Temperatures and dewpoints will be greater in coastal southern
   Maine, but warmer temperatures aloft will limit updraft depth and
   intensity. Weak buoyancy will limit the coverage of intense storms
   enough that no watch is expected this afternoon.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 09/06/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

   LAT...LON   43877239 44167250 45127238 45627186 45707174 46167074
               46896987 47286842 46826818 45986834 44906923 44357040
               43997163 43877239