Mesoscale Discussion 1697
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0947 AM CDT Mon Sep 06 2021

   Areas affected...Northern New York into Vermont

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 061447Z - 061645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Fast moving storms may produce convectively-enhanced
   damaging winds and small hail. No watch is expected.

   DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms was moving around 35-40 kts to
   the north-northeast off of Lake Ontario. A convective gust of 41 kts
   was recorded at KFZY within the last hour. Other New York Mesonet
   sites were showing gusts around 25-30 kts in the same vicinity.
   Despite limited buoyancy and some cloud cover ahead of this activity
   so far, a few of these stronger gusts are possible given the line's
   speed. Continued cooling aloft and modest heating in cloud free
   areas should allow some intensification of the line into the
   afternoon. Based on observed regional and model forecast soundings,
   the most intense storm activity will likely occur where surface
   temperatures can reach the low/mid 70s F. Strong flow in the low
   levels will mean damaging winds will be the primary threat. Small
   hail may also occur given how cold it is aloft. Coverage of severe
   storms should be limited lack of boundary-layer destabilization. No
   watch is expected.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 09/06/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   44567571 45027475 45027274 44757202 44217208 43587255
               43197304 43007491 43067607 43447624 44567571