Mesoscale Discussion 0988
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1136 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

   Areas affected...southern Missouri through northern and western
   Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 171636Z - 171830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage from
   southern Missouri through northern and western Arkansas this
   afternoon. The stronger storms will become capable of producing a
   few instances of strong to severe wind gusts and marginally severe
   hail.

   DISCUSSION...As of late morning the atmosphere continues to
   destabilize across western through northern AR into southern MO
   supported by strong diabatic warming of the moist boundary layer.
   Temperatures rising through the upper 80s F along with low 70s
   dewpoints are promoting 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. A weak surface
   boundary was also indicated from southeast OK through western and
   northern AR into southeast MO where boundary layer cumulus is
   increasing, and an isolated storm has already developed over
   southeast MO. As surface temperatures approach 90F, very little
   convective inhibition should remain and storms are expected to
   increase in coverage during the afternoon. An MCV was also indicated
   across southwest MO moving generally south, and this feature might
   have some influence on storm coverage. Storms will move generally
   southwesterly under the influence of modest north northeasterly
   winds aloft. Multicells / pulse storms should be the dominant modes
   with some activity possibly evolving into small clusters. This
   environment should support a few instances of hail and locally
   strong to damaging gusts during the afternoon.

   ..Dial/Grams.. 06/17/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   34149437 35259421 36769318 36979077 35979075 35019207
               33769393 34149437