Mesoscale Discussion 0987
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1149 PM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021

   Areas affected...Southwest IA...Northwest MO

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 275...

   Valid 170449Z - 170615Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 275
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Ongoing convective line will continue to move through
   southwest IA, with an attendant threat for hail and damaging wind
   gusts.

   DISCUSSION...The ongoing convective line has moved across much of
   western IA at fairly steady storm motion around 40 kt. KDMX radar
   imagery also shows the updrafts keeping pace with the cold pool,
   with regional CAPPI data showing relatively stable updraft strength.
   These observations suggest the convective line has reached a
   favorable cold pool/updraft equilibrium for maintenance/persistence.
   Given these trends, expectation is for the ongoing line to continue
   for at least the next hour or two. Isolated hail and damaging wind
   gusts remain possible.

   Thereafter, given the displacement of the line south of the stronger
   low to mid-level flow and downstream stabilization of the low-level
   air mass, a gradual weakening trend is anticipated. However, some
   potential exists for new development over the western portion of the
   cold pool to increase/strengthen the cool pool, which would
   temporarily increase wind gusts before the system weakens. Given the
   uncertainties, the need for a downstream watch remains in question,
   but convective trends will be monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/17/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

   LAT...LON   41209557 41769530 41879411 41539380 40129352 39769425
               40129519 41209557