Mesoscale Discussion 0932
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0920 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

   Areas affected...Southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261...

   Valid 120220Z - 120415Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing near Wichita, KS will continue to
   gradually grow upscale and move southward into northern Oklahoma.
   These storms may pose a severe wind risk as this occurs, though the
   timing and spatial coverage of this threat remains somewhat
   uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Reflectivity and velocity data from KICT over the past
   1-2 hours has shown discrete cells initiating along a surface
   trough/cold front and where this feature intersects a residual
   outflow boundary from prior convection. As storms develop near the
   cold front/outflow intersection, they have displayed a tendency to
   become displaced to the cool (north) side of the boundary.
   Convective reinforcement of the boundary has resulted in a southward
   boundary motion. Despite deep-layer shear vectors oriented along
   this boundary (which should favor upscale growth), the development
   of an organized MCS has been largely delayed up until the past 30
   minutes.

   Recent imagery suggests that cold pool amalgamation may be beginning
   as a slight southward propagation in a developing convective cluster
   is noted. This feature is expected to continue to push to the
   south/southeast and remain in an environment with 3000-4000 J/kg
   MLCAPE. Although effective bulk shear values near 40-50 knots are
   noted, the line-normal component may be weak and yield an overall
   slow southward progression - driven namely by cold-pool propagation.
   Additionally, increasing MLCIN introduces some uncertainty into the
   propensity for widespread severe/damaging winds. However, given the
   ample instability and strong DCAPE, at least periodic severe winds
   will remain possible.

   ..Moore.. 06/12/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   37629785 37889749 37909676 37619639 37179603 36539589
               36039608 35949679 36009792 36269815 37019812 37629785