Mesoscale Discussion 0931
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0854 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

   Areas affected...Southwest Missouri and Northwest Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 260...

   Valid 120154Z - 120400Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will continue to pose a severe
   wind and hail risk for the next 1-2 hours, but the threat is
   expected to become more sporadic heading into the overnight hours. A
   downstream watch into northwest Arkansas is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...A convectively reinforced outflow boundary continues to
   push southward across southwest MO. Thunderstorms developing along
   this boundary have shown a tendency to quickly become displaced to
   the north. While this convection has been intense at times and
   produced severe/damaging downburst winds, more widespread convection
   has recently become confined to a single more persistent cell across
   Douglas and Ozark counties. To the west, a severe cluster of storms
   that moved out of southeast KS has gradually become displaced behind
   the outflow boundary, and GOES IR imagery shows warming cloud tops,
   indicative of a weakening trend. The expectation is that this pair
   of storms will continue southward into northwest AR into the late
   evening hours. The onset of diurnal cooling/stabilization and the
   lack of a strong low-level jet in the region should favor a gradual
   weakening trend, precluding the need for a downstream watch.
   However, these storms will remain capable of severe/damaging winds
   in the near term and as they approach the southern extent of WW 260.

   ..Moore/Dial.. 06/12/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   37299465 37189401 37199275 37109227 36689200 36269225
               36009271 36009341 36039409 36219457 36719469 37299465