Mesoscale Discussion 0838
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0234 PM CDT Wed Jun 02 2021

   Areas affected...Much of MS...Western AL...Southwest TN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 021934Z - 022130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue throughout the
   afternoon across portions of MS, AL, and southwest TN. A few of
   these storms may become strong enough to produce damaging wind gusts
   and/or isolated hail.

   DISCUSSION...Broad low-level confluence is contributing to banded
   multicellular storm development across much of MS and into southwest
   TN. Thus far, updrafts have been rather transient with relatively
   short duration. However, the air mass continues to further
   destabilize amid strong heating and only partly cloudy skies. Recent
   mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg from most of MS, with
   around 1500 J/kg reaching across much of western TN.  Instability
   drops off quickly with eastern extent, with only around 500 J/kg of
   MLCAPE across central AL. Even so, persistent low-level confluence
   is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm coverage, and
   vertical shear is strong enough to support a few more organized
   updrafts. Additionally, greater storm coverage increases the
   likelihood of storm mergers and resulting brief updraft
   intensification. Primary threat with any stronger storms is damaging
   wind gusts, although isolated hail is also possible.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 06/02/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   34938940 35348839 34798691 31728832 31989104 34188999
               34938940