Mesoscale Discussion 0837
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0128 PM CDT Wed Jun 02 2021

   Areas affected...portions of western into central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 021828Z - 022030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to
   develop over the next couple of hours across western/central Texas.
   Hail and strong wind gusts may accompany this activity into the
   early evening.

   DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary from morning convection extends
   from near BPG to SJT to BBD early this afternoon. Strong heating in
   the vicinity of the boundary amid upper 50s to low 60s surface
   dewpoints is aiding in strong destabilization, with 2000-2500 J/kg
   MLCAPE noted in 18z mesoanalysis data. A couple of initial
   thunderstorms have developed along/just north of the boundary within
   the past hour or two before weakening. Additional, more robust
   development, has been noted recently over northern Sterling County
   with additional deepening CU noted further northwest to the north of
   Midland. While large-scale forcing will remain somewhat modest,
   additional diurnal development is expected in the vicinity of the
   surface boundary given weak low level convergence and strong
   instability. Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient shear should
   allow for a couple of organized cells capable of hail and strong
   gusts. Timing and convective coverage still remains somewhat
   uncertain and trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance
   over the next few hours.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 06/02/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32850192 32000051 31689966 31469927 31179910 30829922
               30629954 30490014 30600067 30780116 31500215 31990269
               32360289 32760275 32940235 32850192