Mesoscale Discussion 0823
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1133 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021

   Areas affected...southeast New Mexico and west Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 311633Z - 311800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop across
   the region this afternoon. Large hail and gusty thunderstorm winds
   will be the primary threat, however a couple of tornadoes cannot be
   ruled out. A watch will be needed in the near term.

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection across east-central New Mexico this
   morning continued to reinforce a westward moving convective outflow
   boundary draped across southeast New Mexico. This boundary will
   continue to move west this afternoon and is expected to serve as a
   focus for thunderstorms. Ahead of the outflow boundary, clear skies
   have allowed surface temperatures to warm into the upper 70s F and
   will continue to warm into the 80s F. This, coupled with surface
   dewpoints in the 50s F and steep mid-level-lapse rates approaching 8
   C/km, will allow surface-based CAPE to exceed 2000-3000 J/km.
   Effective-layer shear on the order of 40-50 knots will support the
   potential for supercells capable of producing large hail and gusty
   thunderstorm outflows this afternoon. Although low-level flow is
   relatively weak, the degree of instability and favorable veering
   wind profile may support a couple tornadoes, especially across west
   Texas where discrete cellular mode may persist longer.

   Thunderstorms are expected to develop across southeast New Mexico
   and west Texas this afternoon with initial development across
   southeast New Mexico in the next hour or so and more widespread
   convection developing in the 1-2 PM MDT time frame. 

   A watch will likely be required in the near term.

   ..Marsh/Hart.. 05/31/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   29000357 30620416 31930518 33040591 33660650 34360677
               34770634 34770538 34040303 33670161 33100101 31030064
               29280102 29620147 29650223 28960288 29000357